匯控(00005.HK)料第四季淨利息收益將進一步下跌 全年信貸損失提撥將接近預期低位
匯控(00005.HK)公布第三季業績,集團行政總裁祈耀年於報告中表示,地緣政治風險、特別是與中美貿易及其他摩擦相關的風險仍然高踞不下,英國退出歐盟的計劃仍然有很大不確定性,雖然貿易談判持續,但雙方無法於2020年底前達成協議的機會依然存在。集團並預期,全球低息環境將令淨利息收益持續受壓。根據目前的利率水平,預期今年第四季的淨利息收益將進一步下跌,但踏入2021年後將會逐漸回穩。
報告並指,2020年預期信貸損失提撥現時趨向80億美元至130億美元之間的較低水平。此項最新預測假設目前經濟前景進一步大幅惡化的可能性較低,以及現時至今年底的第三級減值與年初至今的季度平均提撥大致相同,但將繼續受新型肺炎疫情及地緣政治緊張帶來的高度不明朗因素影響。
集團並期望,將2022年度的成本基礎降至原定的310億美元目標以下,並透過超額達致節省成本總額45億美元的目標來實現。為了達到節約成本所訂立的「達標支出」目標,預期將花費超過60億美元。集團並預期能於2022年底前超額完成削減1,000億美元風險加權資產總值的目標。此舉可讓更多資源分配到更具競爭優勢,以及回報和增長潛力更高的領域。
報告重申,在有關成本、資本及風險加權資產投放的工作完成後,計劃於集團2020年終業績中披露轉型計劃的最新詳情,以及集團中期財務目標的最新數字。根據2020年的業績,以及集團對2021年前景的預測,董事會將會考慮是否就2020年派發一次較為保守的股息。是否派發股息須視乎2021年初的經濟前景,以及徵詢監管機構的結果而定,預計於2021年2月會有最終決定,並於發表2020年終業績時一併公布,預期會同時披露集團2021年及往後經修訂的股息政策。
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