龍湖集團(00960.HK)：潛龍在淵，行穩致遠，給予“買入”評級，目標價48.2港元
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
目標價：48.2港元
民營房企標杆，千億房企中的穩健型選手。公司主營業務包括地產開發、投資物業（商業運營+租賃住房）、物業管理及其他收入，2019 年收入分別為 1407.9、57.9 和 44.4 億元，同比分別為 29.5%、41.5%和 48.7%，近五年 CAGR 分別為 33%、42.2%和 44.7%，毛利率分別為 27.2%、82.8%和 26.8%。公司克而瑞銷售排名長期穩定在 10-15 名，2017 年銷售破千億，2018 年破兩千億，2019 年銷售額 2425 億元，同比增長 20.9%，近五年 CAGR45.2%。
開發優勢：城市深耕助力銷售提速，土儲聚焦一二線。銷售金額近五年CAGR 遠超行業，截至 2020H1 已售未結銷售額 3021 億元，覆蓋 2019 年地產結算收入 2.1 倍，短期業績有保障。2019 年公司貢獻銷售城市數量49 個，TOP10 企業最低，單城市銷售規模達到 49.5 億元，主流房企中處於高位，且公司在 22 個城市市佔率前 10，未來可將成功經驗複製到更多城市。2020H1 土儲總建面 7354 萬平，總貨值 1 萬億，可支撐未來 3-4 年的開發。佈局聚焦一二線並適當強三線城市，安全邊際高。拿地遵循逆週期策略，2019 年地貨比 34.4%，成本合理，為後續利潤增長提供空間。
多元化業務優勢：商業、長租和物業均為行業龍頭。提前佈局商業賽道，近年迎來收穫期，2019 購物中心租金 47.5 億，同比增長 31.9%，增速長期超行業。2019 年十座購物中心集中開業，2020 年受疫情影響計劃開業八座。依靠優秀的選址、清晰的定位、強大的招商能力，運營效率穩健增長，2019 年坪效上升至 35 元/平/天，NPI/cost 升至 7%，出租率高達98.5%。
財務穩健，兼具盈利能力與安全性。獲得國內外全投資評級的民營房企，融資成本 4.5%，與大型央企處於同一水平。平均久期延長至 6.45 年，償債壓力可控。淨負債率 51%，剔除預收賬款的資產負債率 67.1%，均在TOP40 房企中排名低位。毛利率 30.8%、淨利率 17.1%，顯著高於行業平均，銷管費/銷售金額長期控制在 4.5%以內，盈利質量高。
盈利預測與估值。我們預計 2020/2021/2022 年公司歸母淨利潤分別為204.32/237.25/271.26 億元，增速分別為 11.4%/16.1%/14.3%，EPS 為3.42/3.97/4.53 元。首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價 42.21 元/股，對應 48.2 港元/股。
風險提示：一二線房地產調控政策超預期收嚴，導致銷售不及預期；疫情影響超預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
