中國鐵塔(00788.HK)：淨利雙位數增長，業務多元擴張，維持“買入”評級，目標價1.77 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：1.77 港元
投資要點
三季度歸母淨利同比增 長 17.8%，塔類站均租户穩定增長。中國鐵塔前三季度營業收入 602.2 億元（人民幣，下同）（+5.6%），EBITDA 440.2 億元（+5.4%），EBITDA 率為 73.1%，同比下降 0.2pcts；歸母淨利潤 45.6 億元（+17.8%）。公司前三季度淨利潤率為 7.6%（+0.8pcts），第三季度淨利潤率為 7.8%；前三季度營收增長同比分別為 4.2%、5.4%、7.2%，隨 5G基站建設速度和規模的加大，呈現加速提升。
塔類站址 202 萬座，租户數 333.6 萬户，塔類站均租户數提升至 1.65。公司塔類站址較 2019 年底增加 2.6 萬座，租户數達到 333.6 萬户，站均租户數 1.65 户/站，較 2019 年底增加 0.03 户/站。2020 年前三季度公司完成 34.5萬個 5G 基站站址交付，97%以上 5G 需求通過共享已有站址資源完成。根據工信部的統計，2019 年全國 4G 基站總數達 544 萬站， 5G 宏基站預計需要達到 4G 的 1.2-1.5 倍，整個 5G 週期宏基站總數將超過 650 萬站，為長期增長提供支撐。
公司多點支撐業務格局加速形成，收入結構長期有望改善。公司前三季度塔類業務收入 548.0 億元（+5.6%），室分業務收入 26.3 億元（+36.9%），跨行業及能源業務收入 26.1.億元（+92.8%）；公司整體非塔類業務收入（包括室分業務和跨行業及能源業務收入）佔比從去年同期的 5.7%提升到8.7%，“一體兩翼”戰略加快形成，營收結構長期有望改善。
投資建議：放眼整個 5G 建設週期，公司未來的站址數伴隨 5G 建設浪潮仍將保持穩定增長。我們採用 DCF 法進行估值，保守假設融資成本和投資現金流，下調目標價 4%至 1.77 港元，對應 2020 年 EV/EBITDA 為 6.1，距離 10 月 23 日收盤價有 37.2%的空間，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：1）運營商資本開支下降；2）5G建設不及預期；3）產品價格調整。
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