《大行报告》大摩料内险股上季新业务价值跌5%至25% 销售表现续弱
大摩发表的研究报告指,预期内险股第三季新业务价值增长较弱,料按年跌5-25%,估计险企将聚焦於明年「开门红」的销售策略等,该行指出五家中港两地上市的险企及中国财险(02328.HK)均会在10月尾公布第三季业绩,聚焦寿险的公司在储备金方面的压力持续,但按市值计价的收益或可部分抵销相关影响,但按公认会计原则计算盈利仍将下降。
在营运层面,该行料中国平安(02318.HK)税後溢利应可按年增3%,主要受惠寿险方面盈利表现,加上财险方面盈利亦有复苏,以及平安银行的盈利和财富管理方面的增长等,料上市险企第三季年化股本回报率将介乎10-18%。
在寿险业务方面,该行估计第三季销售维持缓慢,而复苏亦未跟随宏观经济表现,尽管内地已开始放宽社交距离措施,但上市险企的整体首年保费大致按年下跌,估计中国人寿(02628.HK)及平安的新业务价值将分别跌5%及25%,而新华保险(01336.HK)则料会跌8%。在财产险方面,虽然传媒广泛报道南中国水浸情况,但认为险企承保均有正面表现。(el/k) ~
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