《大行報告》大摩料內險股上季新業務價值跌5%至25% 銷售表現續弱
大摩發表的研究報告指,預期內險股第三季新業務價值增長較弱,料按年跌5-25%,估計險企將聚焦於明年「開門紅」的銷售策略等,該行指出五家中港兩地上市的險企及中國財險(02328.HK)均會在10月尾公布第三季業績,聚焦壽險的公司在儲備金方面的壓力持續,但按市值計價的收益或可部分抵銷相關影響,但按公認會計原則計算盈利仍將下降。
在營運層面,該行料中國平安(02318.HK)稅後溢利應可按年增3%,主要受惠壽險方面盈利表現,加上財險方面盈利亦有復甦,以及平安銀行的盈利和財富管理方面的增長等,料上市險企第三季年化股本回報率將介乎10-18%。
在壽險業務方面,該行估計第三季銷售維持緩慢,而復甦亦未跟隨宏觀經濟表現,儘管內地已開始放寬社交距離措施,但上市險企的整體首年保費大致按年下跌,估計中國人壽(02628.HK)及平安的新業務價值將分別跌5%及25%,而新華保險(01336.HK)則料會跌8%。在財產險方面,雖然傳媒廣泛報道南中國水浸情況,但認為險企承保均有正面表現。(el/k) ~
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