《大行報告》中金料內險股未來六個月估值修復空間仍有30% 憧憬開門紅預售佳
中金發表報告指,過去一段時間A/H股保險板塊股價表現優秀,認為主要由於部分公司開門紅預售情況較好和估值切換,考慮到市場普遍預料中期內(三至六個月)長端利率保持較高水平甚至略有向上,因此開門紅新單增速水平和可持續性(即之後3個季度的增長情況),將成為決定這一輪保險股估值修復空間和時間長度的關鍵因素。
中金表示,基於對影響開門紅增速的六個因素的分析,該行嘗試估計了明年各家險企開門紅新業務價值增速:預計行業明年首季新業務價值按年增長10%至15%。值得注意的是,影響開門紅增速的因素諸多,且險企主觀調節空間大,因此與最終結果可能有一定偏差。
該行又認為,未來三至六個月A/H股保險板塊的確定性估值修復空間還有20%/30%,部分個股空間超過40%,而低估值開門紅增速更快的公司更具風險收益比。中金對行業的A股排序為太保(601601.SH)、平安(601318.SH)、新華(601336.SH)、國壽(601628.SH)。H股排序為太保(02601.HK)、太平(00966.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK)、新華(01336.HK)、國壽(02628.HK)。
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