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5G幫忙,運營商業績漲起來了!
格隆匯 10-22 13:10

作者:李雁爭 

來源:上海證券報

中國電信將在今天公佈前三季度財報。此前,中國移動與中國聯通已經相繼發佈了三季報。各類數據顯示,三大運營商業績普遍上漲是大概率事件。

中國電信三季度業績有望增長

儘管中國電信前三季度財報還沒有正式發佈,但從全行業情況看,中國電信的財報也很可能實現增長。

在今天上午國務院新聞辦公室舉行的發佈會上,工業和信息化部新聞發言人、運行監測協調局局長黃利斌介紹,按照上年不變價計算,前三季度電信業務總量同比大幅增長了18.6%,固定資產投資同比增長了16.5%,其中5G投資佔比達到了38.2%,5G網絡和終端商用快速發展。截至9月底,累計建設5G基站69萬個,目前累計終端連接數已超過了1.6億户。超高清視頻、雲遊戲、移動雲、VR等個人應用場景逐漸豐富,醫療、能源、自動駕駛等垂直行業實踐不斷深化。

今年前三個季度中國移動運營總收入為5744億元,同比上升了1.4%;淨利潤為816億元,同比微降0.3%。

同期中國聯通實現收入2073.49億元,同比上升4.4%;公司權益持有者應占盈利為108.24億元,比去年同期上升了10.2%。

5G商用為行業帶來積極影響

從兩大運營商的財報看,5G商用為通信行業帶來的積極變化已經出現——國內電信運營商的移動業務ARPU值(每用户每月平均收入)在歷經了三年的下跌後,出現了企穩回升的跡象。

中國聯通數據顯示,前三季度,集團移動用户ARPU值為人民幣41.6元,同比增長2.6%。

中國移動數據顯示,前三季度ARPU值為48.9元,去年同期為50.2元,降幅明顯收窄。

2016年國內運營商的移動業務ARPU值曾出現回升,不過從2017年開始,又進入“跌跌不休”的狀態。三年來,三家運營商的移動業務ARPU下降幅度都在10%以上。

前些年,為了搶奪用户,三家運營商“拼殺”激烈,深陷“價格戰”,導致整個行業價值越打越低。

去年10月底,我國5G規模商用開啟後,價值經營成為重要原則。運營商高層明確提出,堅決不打5G價格戰,共同維護行業生態。

“我們內部強調,5G發展中必須提升ARPU,要向5G要收入。通過推動用户4升5,確保用户ARPU值有明顯提升。”一個運營商內部人士表示。

三大運營商ARPU有望保持高增長

5G帶動移動業務ARPU值回升,同樣的故事已先一步在韓國運營商身上發生。韓國電信首席財務官Yoon Kyung-keun預計,隨着用户從LTE遷移到5G,ARPU會有30%的上升空間。

業界人士預測,隨着我國5G用户規模和用户DOU值(客户月均流量數據)的進一步提升,未來一段時間,國內運營商的移動業務ARPU將保持回升勢頭。

儘管中國移動前三季度的ARPU值還沒有實現增長,但市場對此很有信心。

國泰君安分析師預計,5G將推動移動ARPU的回升。由於4GARPU的壓力,預計2020年第四季度中國移動ARPU仍將同比下降。但隨着市場競爭的放緩和5G用户比例的提升,中國移動的ARPU也將推升,因此2020年第四季度移動ARPU的下降幅度將進一步縮小。

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