《大行报告》摩通维持对高鑫(06808.HK)长期正面看法 看14元评级「增持」
摩根大通发表报告指,对高鑫零售(06808.HK)股权交易感正面,在竞争加剧下,料阿里(09988.HK)将进一步加强高鑫竞争力。该行料2018年历史将会重演,即竞争加剧是供给侧而不是需求侧带动。该行重申对高鑫零售长期正面看法,维持目标价14元,评级「增持」。
该行上周与高鑫首席财务官会面,料其短期投资将会增加。与两年前高鑫在O2O整合增加开支及资本开支类似,摩通料今次高鑫将在社区团购方面增加投资。这短期或推升成本压力,不过,摩通认为,高鑫盈利模式较同业更具持续性,料自2021年起市占将加快增长。相反,该行料其同业於亏损扩大的情况下争扎,而且会重新收缩规模。昨日高鑫股价急升19%,料在明年股价潜在大幅上升前,应维持窄幅上落。
摩通称,高鑫交易完成後,料其将延长与阿里旗下B2B货源平台「零售通」的夥伴关系,料有助高鑫进一步扩大渠道。该行另称,高鑫新店开业及社区团购规模的数据,未来将较同店销售增长更为重要,并推动股价发展。
此外,报告称,明年上半年高鑫同店销售增长料因高基数持续受压,但对毛利率料影响有限,因期内产品组合及经常性租金收入料改善。
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