《大行報告》摩通維持對高鑫(06808.HK)長期正面看法 看14元評級「增持」
摩根大通發表報告指,對高鑫零售(06808.HK)股權交易感正面,在競爭加劇下,料阿里(09988.HK)將進一步加強高鑫競爭力。該行料2018年歷史將會重演,即競爭加劇是供給側而不是需求側帶動。該行重申對高鑫零售長期正面看法,維持目標價14元,評級「增持」。
該行上周與高鑫首席財務官會面,料其短期投資將會增加。與兩年前高鑫在O2O整合增加開支及資本開支類似,摩通料今次高鑫將在社區團購方面增加投資。這短期或推升成本壓力,不過,摩通認為,高鑫盈利模式較同業更具持續性,料自2021年起市佔將加快增長。相反,該行料其同業於虧損擴大的情況下爭扎,而且會重新收縮規模。昨日高鑫股價急升19%,料在明年股價潛在大幅上升前,應維持窄幅上落。
摩通稱,高鑫交易完成後,料其將延長與阿里旗下B2B貨源平台「零售通」的夥伴關係,料有助高鑫進一步擴大渠道。該行另稱,高鑫新店開業及社區團購規模的數據,未來將較同店銷售增長更為重要,並推動股價發展。
此外,報告稱,明年上半年高鑫同店銷售增長料因高基數持續受壓,但對毛利率料影響有限,因期內產品組合及經常性租金收入料改善。
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