纺织服装行业：下游终端持续恢复，上游纺企订单回流，Q4板块有望强势复苏，维持“强于大市”评级
机构：天风证券
评级：强于大市
上游：印度纺织订单转移至中国，加速上游纺企恢复
近期，由于印度疫情严重，纺织行业停工，大量订单流出至中国生产，上游纺织制造行业加速回暖。具体来看，转移至中国的订单主要集中在家纺行业中，其中毛巾、床单订单较大，我们认为主要系：
1）中国拥有纺织行业全产业链，且对于疫情的控制力较强，各工厂的复工复产有序进行，能够承接大批量纺织订单；
2）国内棉花价格相对较低，原材料成本优势明显。
我们认为此次印度订单转移至中国在短期利好纺织制造行业的快速恢复。
上半年由于疫情影响，上游纺企受到复工复产延迟和订单流失的影响，业绩出现较大的下滑；下半年开始随着下游终端需求的逐步恢复，订单和产能利用率持续恢复；叠加印度订单转移到中国，纺织企业的产能得到了加速恢复。
从国内企业恢复情况来看，根据我们的跟踪，上游企业三季度产能利用率持续恢复，订单情况良好，四季度进入旺季后，预计整体产能和订单情况仍旧能够持续恢复。
下游：品牌终端持续恢复，冷冬利好冬装销售，Q4板块有望全面恢复。
从下游品牌端来看，线下终端持续恢复；线上渠道来看，各品牌持续保持较快速增长，十一黄金周数据表现亮眼，开启Q4冬装销售旺季。
与此同时，由于拉尼娜现象影响，我国2020-2021年冬天预计大概率为冷冬。从十一黄金周来看，全国气温普降4~5℃，北方地区气温下降较为明显，利好冬季羽绒服的销售。
我们认为19Q4由于暖冬影响，基数较低；2020Q4冷冬催化，且冬装销售在部分地区提前开启；同时2020-2021年春节在2月中旬，相比2019-2020年春节时间延后，冬装销售季节拉长。多重因素叠加利好品牌冬季的销售，
我们认为Q4各品牌有望持续恢复。我们认为当前整个纺织服装板块估值较低，但Q4板块有望全面复苏，我们依旧推荐当前板块内优质标的。
上游纺织制造：【申洲国际】、【健盛集团】、【酷特智能】
下游品牌端：【波司登】、【李宁】、【安踏体育】、【南极电商】、【开润股份】、【太平鸟】、【稳健医疗】。
风险提示：印度订单转移至中国为短期因素，注意后续订单回流至印度；疫情反复；终端消费疲软。
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