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《大行报告》中金:内地车市需求稳健恢复 车股估值仍有提升空间
阿思达克 10-14 11:42
中金发表报告表示,新冠疫情後车市需求呈现稳健恢复,料中资汽车股板块估值仍有提升空间,对於今年第四季度的投资逻辑进行梳理,主要分为四条主线:向新而行,品牌自信,产销恢复,海外修复。该行推荐比亚迪(01211.HK)、理想汽车(LI.US)、长城汽车(02333.HK)、长安汽车(000625.SZ)、潍柴动力(02338.HK)、华域汽车(600741.SH)、 均胜电子(600699.SH)。

该行指低基数下,料内地汽车行业2021年有望录得10%以上增长。目前看今年第三季度车市恢复符合预期,若第四季度仍能实现与历史水平相当的环比走势、经济活动恢复常态,该行认为2020年需求回暖的逻辑仍然适用於2021年,同时还会叠加2020年低基数的影响。量化来看,该行假设2021年首购需求按年升5%,换购需求为保有量/28(更换基数与2019年持平),增购占比与2019年持平,此推算内地2021年乘用车销量为2,245万辆,按年升14%。

近期结束的北京车展中,该行认为自主品牌新车型的推出速度和迭代速度更快,认为国内车市逐步进入存量市场阶段,强产品力来自於快速迭代更新。

中金认为,在中国汽车工业近廿年的高速发展中,自主车企从学习跟随转向正向开发探索,当下进入了在部分领域实现超越的收获阶段。性价比不再是唯一优势,自主品牌开始具备挑战15万至20万元人民币级别车型的能力。该行认为销量表现强劲,A/H溢价有望缩窄,「欧拉」尚未体现估值的长城汽车(02333.HK)後续仍存在上行空间。该行预计伴随定增落地,长安汽车业绩将在第三季度开始兑现。

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