華住集團-S(01179.HK)深度報告：篳路藍縷到繁花似錦，定義酒店服務成就頂級企業，給予“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
華住酒店憑藉自身品牌、規模、效率方面的優勢，將成為中國酒店行業服務標杆，並逐步成長為世界級的酒店集團。
摘要：
華住將成長為世界級酒店集團，樹中國服務業標準。考慮疫情及並表因 素影 響， 預 計 2020/21/22 年公司 non-GAAP 歸 母 EPS 為 -3.86/4.78/6.14 元人民幣，公司是中國酒店行業效率標杆，給予 2022 年高於行業平均 56xPE 估值，目標價 393.30 港元，增持。
華住生逢其時，乘經濟型酒店藍海而起，在中檔酒店時代稱王。①華住酒店創立恰逢中國旅遊市場經歷非典後爆發期，萬億住宿標品藍海；②華住創始人及團隊擁有互聯網背景，“外行人”思維幫助華住顛覆傳統酒店頑疾，憑藉“速度、位置、品質”戰術實現逆襲，並在中高端酒店時代憑全季成為酒店行業王者；③疫情衝擊疊加並表德意志酒店（DH），逆市擴張上市融資補血，佈局下一個十年。
酒店的規模、效率、品牌者得天下，華住勝在具備優秀的組織能力。①酒店行業規模優勢是難以逾越的壁壘，但規模擴張需要沉澱出優秀的供應鏈和管理能力支撐，最終酒店成為品牌管理公司，輸出服務標準；②數據維度比較：華住酒店經營效率已是行業最佳，在人房比、一般行政管理費用方面領先，且自身效率仍在不斷進化提升；③數據沒能體現華住在對需求變化的洞察力及執行力、對行業趨勢拐點的判斷力、擴張併購的戰略眼光以及應對衝擊的反應力等方面的優秀；④華住優秀的本質來自於優秀的組織能力及激勵機制，對不同層級員工的訴求和管理方式符合平台型組織的特徵，具備自我迭代能力。
華住的未來：做中國服務標準。①疫情帶來供給側被動出清，華住加速下沉拓店步伐，中國酒店連鎖化滲透率仍不足 30%，三四線市場依然有廣闊機遇；②收購 DH 酒店進軍高端細分，完善自身產品線同時，未來將培育中國自己的高端及奢華酒店品牌；③未來中國服務有望接力中國製造成為經濟驅動力，華住的目標是樹立中國服務標準。
風險提示：併購恰逢疫情衝擊商譽減值風險；資產負債率過高導致現金流風險；疫情反覆導致防控措施升級風險。
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