蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)：業績二季度始加速復甦，低温奶支持未來增長
機構：東吳證券
第二季度始加速復甦，全年業績有望同比持平。公司 2020 上半年營收同比微降5.8%至 375.3 億元，歸母淨利潤同比降 41.7%至 12.1 億元，剔除 2019 年處置君樂寶和收購貝拉米並表影響，公司上半年收入同比增長 9.4%。二季度始疫情逐步受控，公司 2Q20 可比收入和歸母淨利潤分別同比+19.2%/+86.2%，顯示良好的復甦態勢。從各個事業部來看，液態奶/冰淇淋/奶粉/其他分別錄得營收325.7/22.3/22.8/3.24 億元，同比+10.6%/+2.0%/+29.8%/+40.9%。
從細分產品和業務來看，常温核心產品表現穩健，特侖蘇上半年同比增 19%，二季度同比增速超過 30%，真果粒上半年同比增 11%；高端鮮奶、低温酸奶和奶酪業務齊發力，每日鮮語穩坐高端鮮奶第一品牌，同比增速達 177%，低温酸奶優益C LC-37 和冠益乳“小藍帽”分別同比增 80%和 50%，奶酪業務方面與丹麥 Aria聯手並全面整合業務平台，上半年實現同比 120%的高速成長。
天貓和京東線上零售數據顯示，蒙牛品牌 9 月銷售額環比增 28.3%且銷售額自 5月份以來逐月增長，特侖蘇和每日鮮語 9 月環比增速 29.2%/2.4%，且 6-9 月銷售額較 1-5 月均有較大的增幅，一定程度説明乳品需求和公司動銷的改善。雙十一購物節將有助於提振銷售，下半年或將維持二季度增長勢頭，考慮到君樂寶出錶帶來的影響，全年業績有望同比持平。
掌控優質奶源提升利潤率。今年以來下游乳企巨頭積極整合上游牧場，掌控優質奶源：蒙牛於 7 月以 3.95 億港元增持中國聖牧，合計持股升至 17.8%成為最大股東；伊利於 8 月及 9 月增持中地乳業至 31.87%成為最大股東。收購完成後，蒙牛掌控現代牧業、富源牧業及中國聖牧 3 家規模化牧場；伊利則掌控優然牧業、賽科星及中地乳業。兩大乳企巨頭的奶牛存檔總數分別為 40 萬頭及 35 萬頭，優質奶源優勢明顯。而且，下游乳企整合上游牧場後，通過聯合採購飼料、合作運營工廠等手段，產生協同效應降低成本，鞏固其優勢。加上利用優質奶源推出低温鮮奶、奶酪這些高毛利產品，有助提升公司整體利潤率。
加大投資低温奶市場支持未來增長。蒙牛早在 2018 年已推出蒙牛·新鮮嚴選、每日鮮語及新鮮工廠 3 個鮮奶新品牌，今年進一步加大投資低温鮮奶市場，先是 8月與可口可樂正式簽約，合資營運高端低温奶項目，分 4 期投資 21 億元人民幣，明年第 3 季度正式投產銷售；另外，9 月公司在武漢投資 20 億元人民幣興建新工廠，涵蓋鮮奶、低温酸奶、高端奶酪三大品類。過去因為奶源分佈不均、農牧居多等因素，常温奶幾乎壟斷市場，市佔率高達 80%。然而隨着消費升級，低温鮮奶因味道較佳及營養價值較高而受消費者青睞，同時冷鏈物流成熟也為其擴張提供了基礎。據歐睿數據顯示，2017-19 年中國鮮奶銷售額同比增長 9.7%、10.7%和11.6%，增速已經連續 5 年加快，過去兩年更保持雙位數增長。而且低温鮮奶毛利率可以較常温奶高 1 倍，因此將支持蒙牛未來的盈利增長。
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