節後開盤暴漲，A股光伏概念掀起漲停潮
A股節後開市第一天，光伏概念股開盤大漲，多隻個股漲停封板。截至發稿，隆基股份大漲逾9%、三花智控漲7.4%；中信博、青島中程、豫金剛石等5股20%漲停；福萊特、通威股份、福斯特、金晶科技等20多股10%漲停。
數據來源:同花順
消息面上，近期光伏玻璃價格漲至歷史新高，遠超市場預期。其原因是從8月以來，光伏玻璃市場進入三四季度“搶裝潮”階段，市場需求旺盛。10月以來供不應求狀況加劇，光伏玻璃價格進一步上漲。另外在政策面上，國內方面，“十四五”有可能對光伏、風電等可再生能源領域提供政策支持，引發市場憧憬“十四五”期間光伏裝機量進一步增長。
除以上因素影響外，今日A股光伏概念大漲，其實早有預兆。國慶休市期間，港股光伏板塊表現相當強勢。截至昨日收盤，漲幅最高的福萊特玻璃5日漲逾50%，保利協鑫能源漲逾44，洛陽玻璃漲逾22%，信義光能漲近33%，信義光能、福萊特玻璃均創歷史新高。板塊內福萊特玻璃、洛陽玻璃等均屬於AH股，因此，節日期間港股光伏板塊的大幅走高對今日A股市場光伏概念大漲的帶動作用明顯。
數據來源：富途牛牛
美股方面，國慶期間，晶科能源漲幅達到42%，ENPHASE漲33%，漲幅最小的阿特亦有20%。近期歐盟國家擬進一步縮減碳排放量，將可再生能源提高到重要戰略高度。以及拜登最新民調數據明顯高於特朗普，他曾在7月份提出一項2萬億美元的清潔能源和氣候變化一攬子計劃，被稱為“清潔能源革命”。一旦拜登當選，預計將提升市場對新能源行業預期。
行業預期上，預計光伏玻璃市場供應緊張態勢短時間內不會改變，價格上漲勢頭將持續到明年。具體數據來看，需求端國內、海外需求均超預期。國內8月裝機逾2GW，同比大增近40%；海外8月組件出口7.21GW，同比增長22%。供給端受疫情影響，龍頭產能釋放遲滯，福萊特、信義光能各有2條1000噸/日產線分別推遲至20年Q4或21年Q1投產。
其次光伏行業受政策影響較大，在國內外政策環境較好情況下，我國作為全球第一大光伏產業，有望進一步擴充產能。但也有因產能放大過量造成供過於求，使得玻璃、硅片降價的風險。
東吳證券發佈研報稱，Q4國內競價項目搶裝，有望迎來史上最強旺季。明年將全面進入光伏平價時代，全球裝機160-170GW，同增30-40%，迎來行業大年。光伏板塊長期成長性突出，短期龍頭業績高增長低估值，強烈推薦隆基股份、通威股份等。
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