軍工行業：佈局“十四五“,把握優質賽道，維持“推薦”行業評級
機構：銀河證券
評級：推薦
最新觀點
1、新冠疫情海外蔓延對軍工行業衝擊有限。目前國內疫情得到基本控制，對軍工行業的負面影響基本消除。隨着海外疫情的大範圍擴散，全球產業鏈的完整性經受巨大挑戰。而國內軍工行業由於自主可控屬性較強，供應鏈絕大部分在國內，受全球疫情衝擊較小。
2、佈局“十四五”，自上而下優選賽道。當今世界正經歷百年未有之大變局，面對這場變局，軍事戰略之爭開始向太空、網絡、海洋、極地等新領域和遠程精確化、智能化、隱身化、無人化等新技術維度擴展。未來我國軍事裝備量質齊升，隨着代級的提高，裝備價格也呈現指數級增長，軍工行業的發展有望迎來黃金時代。“十四五”期間軍費支出/軍品採購的結構性調整對於跟蹤行業的邊際變化變得尤為重要，我們建議重點關注航空產業鏈、導彈產業鏈、無人機產業鏈、衞星產業鏈以及新材料和元器件產業鏈等優質賽道。
3、把握“十四五”高景氣度細分領域，自下而上精選個股。“十四五”期間三代半和四代機“量價齊升”有望帶動航空軍機產業鏈景氣度整體走高。國內實戰化軍事訓練強度大幅提升，疊加當前周邊局勢緊張，軍事備戰需求大幅增加，導彈作為戰略威懾武器未來有望迎來確定性增長。裝備需求強勁疊加國產替代加速，多重利好共振帶動軍用電容器和碳纖維需求快速增長，並有望成為分享軍工行業成長紅利的優質賽道。
投資建議
軍工板塊調整充分，把握優質賽道的投資機會。短期看，中證軍工自前期高點整體回調達22%，從空間和時間來看均較為充分。當前軍工板塊估值（TTM）約62x，雖然突破估值中樞57x，但估值分位數約為60%，上行空間依然較大。展望Q4，估值切換疊加軍工板塊估值風險釋放，板塊估值提升空間再次打開。中長期看，我們堅定看好軍工行業景氣度的持續提升，“十四五”規劃將出現對裝備需求的結構性調整，需重視由此引發的優質細分賽道的投資機會。
建議關注兩條主線：一是關注受益於裝備“十四五”規劃傾斜的子領域，推薦新材料領域的中簡科技（300777.SZ）、軍工電容器領域的鴻遠電子（603267.SH）、航空發動機產業鏈龍頭航發動力（600893.SH）；二是關注估值與成長兼具的優質個股航天發展（000547.SZ）等。
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