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《大行报告》高盛上调国泰(00293.HK)目标价至5.05元 评级「沽售」
阿思达克 10-05 15:44
高盛发表的研究报告指,考虑到国际航空业前景具挑战性,新加坡航空及国泰航空(00293.HK)均表明会审视其规模并重整业务及航班,料将於未来数周或数月公布详情,而新航早前已宣布裁减员工,考虑到这些宣布,该行分析了两家公司的架构、日程及飞机退役等因素,并与航运及运力等作比对,以评估潜在成削减及经营重组等。

该行估计新航现时公布的航班计划反映运力供过於求,但在延迟飞机交付及安排飞机退役後,国泰定位将更理想,估计2021财年公司将机位将呈101%供过於求的情况,但估计随着国际旅游复苏,到2022财年其客运力将与可用座位公里(ASK)的需求将一致。

而在减值开支方面,该行料新航或出现大额减值开支,但国泰方面考虑到近期已有减值,故料不会出现大规模的撇帐,高盛认为公司有一些较旧的机款,加上在今年上半年亦有撇帐,故料潜在减值将少於10亿港元。

该行认为考虑到前景困难,国泰将显着节省成本,包括裁员等,料其今年员工人数将按年减15%。高盛下调国泰今年每股盈测4%,以反映成本上升;惟上调国泰明後两年每股盈测分别5%及7%,以反映货运收入增加预期,及员工成本有望减少。高盛重申予国泰及新航「沽售」评级,认为国际旅游复苏将较缓慢,而国泰目标价由5元升至5.05元。

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