中石化煉化工程(02386.HK):穩健的新簽訂單增長,維持“買入“評級,目標價4.25 港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:4.25 港元
中石化煉化工程 2020 上半年業績穩健,很大程度上打消了先前市場在油價低迷及疫情肆虐時所產生的顧慮。2020 上半年盈利同比增長 5.1%至人民幣 12.60 億元,好於我們預期。毛利率同比下滑 1.3 個百分點,但淨利率維持在 5.3%的同比持平水平,得益於行政開支的大幅下降。新簽訂單總額同比增長 10.3%,完成全年目標 64.3%;其中海外新籤額同比激增 200.6%。
得益於對研發及新業務領域的長期重視,公司能很好地從中國煉化行業的持續轉型中獲得機會。公司不斷增長的在手訂單以及巨大的海外增長空間亦對公司的長期前景形成支撐。
分別略微上調 2020-2021 年盈利預測 2.5%和 1.9%至人民幣 23.36 億元和人民幣 23.90 億元,而 2022 年盈利預測則基本維持不變,為人民幣 25.28 億元。我們此次對盈利預測的上調,主要是由於對新籤合同增長的預測更為樂觀以及對行政開支的預測有所下降。
重申“買入”,目標價 4.25 港元。我們認為公司目前的股價擁有理想的風險回報率,其市盈率和市淨率均大幅低於歷史均值。我們 4.25 港元的目標價較我們用折現現金流方法得出的 9.90 港元每股的估值有顯著的折讓,並分別對應 0.6 倍 / 0.6 倍 / 0.6 倍 2020-2022 年市淨率(低於過去 5 年遠期市淨率均值一個標準差)。

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