神州控股(00861.HK)：燕雲DaaS修復估值，業績高增長可期，給予“買入”評級，目標價7.76港元
機構：西南證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.76港元
事件：公司和北京因特睿與長春金控及長春淨月達成注資協議，同意以現金注資的方式以代價4億人民幣及3億人民幣分別認購北京因特睿經擴大註冊資本的約6.45%及4.84%。
燕雲DaaS助推新基建，智慧城市業務高增長。公司智慧城市業務2020H1實現營收1.5億港元，同比增長69.8%。燕雲DaaS助力之下，無需源代碼即可使用通用API實現數據連接，大大提高項目效率、縮短項目週期。預計今年項目訂單可實現翻倍增長。此外，公司實行的城市CTO深耕模式，業務初期毛利率較低，但方案落地的成本會隨着落地的速度逐步下降，業務毛利將逐步提升。
核心技術賦能智慧供應鏈業務，城市貿易智慧再升級。科捷依託“供應鏈+大數據+AloT”戰略和雲服務平台，抓住疫情機會，積極拓展線上教育、醫療物資、生活電商領域，實現逆勢高速成長，簽約規模同比增長超60%；另一方面，與智慧城市及底層大數據技術燕雲DaaS的高度協同性，助力科捷在5G基站設備、新能源設備、電子元器件製造等領域的業務佈局。科捷在“618購物節”期間訂單同比增長近50%，預計全年將實現超30%的訂單增長。
金融IT行業高景氣，技術優勢助業績穩健增長。公司分佈式銀行核心系統Sm@rtEnsemble作為自主可控銀行交易系統，需求或增加。神州信息利用其核心競爭力提供端到端的解決方案，將進一步拓展。2020H1公司金融科技業務簽約同比大幅增長35.9%，我們預計未來公司三年銀行IT業務公司將持續穩健增長。
估值與評級：公司銀行IT業務為核心系統龍頭，給予2020年公司銀行IT業務45倍PE，市值超170億人民幣，神州控股所持有股份對應市值為69億元人民幣，對應約86.6億港幣估值。長春金控及長春淨月注資因特睿，核心業務旗下關鍵技術燕雲DaaS或可取得長足發展，修復多項公司核心業務估值，公司多項高增長。給予2020年智慧供應鏈以及智慧城市業務45倍PE，合計市值約43.2億港元。新基建、信創之下，公司長期拓展空間可觀，我們預計公司2020年加總市值超129.8億港元，對應目標價為7.76港元，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：中美貿易摩擦，宏觀環境不穩定風險；銀行IT競爭加劇風險；新基建政策變化風險；神州信息賬期風險等。
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