玖龍紙業(02689.HK):鐘擺向上,不妨樂觀性,維持“買入”評級
機構:國信證券
評級:買入
盈利改善拐點出現
2020FY 實現銷量 1530 萬噸(+8.5%),營收 519.60 億元(-5.2%),淨利潤 41.69 億元(+8.0%)。收入下降主要原因是噸紙均價下跌,淨利潤同比增長原因主要是原材料廢紙跌幅大於成品紙。毛利率和淨利率也受益於廢紙價格大幅下跌,為 17.6%(+2.2%)和 8.1%(+1.0%)。在疫情影響下,公司 2020H2 盈利水平較 2020H1 仍然有所改善。公司盈利拐點或已出現,未來盈利能力有望隨產業鏈景氣改善不斷上行。 ? 佈局產業鏈上下游,拓展客户羣體公司拓展國內外替代原材料供應渠道,預計 2022 年共有超 200 萬噸木漿和廢紙漿產能,其原材料的質、量以及由此帶來的成本優勢有望進一步加強。公司期內還收購了下游包裝廠業務,並計劃未來在成都、重慶增加包裝產能,這一舉措有望與造紙業務產生協同效應,提升集團整體利潤率水平。此外,公司推出“江龍牌”打入低端市場,豐富產品組合,進一步提升產品市佔率。
噸紙盈利與估值仍處中低位,向上空間充足
2020FY 噸紙淨利潤 272 元,在去除財務費用影響後位於歷史中低位置,隨着行業進一步出清,龍頭議價權提升,噸紙淨利潤有望持續上行。另一方面,無論是 PE 還是 PB,公司當前相對估值水平僅與2012-2016 年行業產能嚴重過剩期間位於相同水平。其估值並未合理反映行業近年來產能去化、公司自身規模增長、議價權提升、資本開支負擔下降等基本面層面的良性改善。
投資建議:看好龍頭景氣週期高彈性,維持“買入”評級
預 計 2021-2023 淨 利 潤 75.76/99.04/113.81 億 元 , 同 比 增 速81.7/30.7/14.9%。2020 年 9 月 24 日收盤價 10.28 港元對應 2021-2023年 PB=0.93/0.81/0.71x。看好行業景氣上行期“量價齊升”帶來的高業績彈性,維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
行業供給側收縮幅度不及預期;原材料價格劇烈波動。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.