造车新势力研究：智能化汽车三问三答，维持“强于大市”评级
机构：平安证券
评级：强于大市
智能化汽车如何改变汽车行业？全新的汽车商业模式正在展现，汽车行业正在从增量市场收费转变为存量市场收费，从过去的赚取一次性出售汽车的利润转变为赚取存量用户服务费（类似手机中的IOS系统和个人PC的Windows系统），比如通过OTA软件升级、互联网内容服务、APP对接、系统许可服务收费等，汽车行业的周期波动减弱，背后需要新的公司体系和智能化产品的支撑。
智能化汽车需要什么样的公司体系？与传统车企的组织体系不相同，架构更类似互联网公司，改变有两点，一是在研发制造环节，从以动力总成和底盘为中心到以软件部门为中心，从硬件V型开发流程到软件闭环开发体系，会有新老权利中心利益冲突和交替，二是建立类似互联网的大中台+小前台架构，迅速把握和响应用户需求，通过数字化运营体系打通研发和营销，与消费者建立直接联系。
智能化的产品是什么样的？简而言之就是汽车将从交通工具变为移动空间，其基础是集成度更高的产品架构，更高速的数据传输网络，实现产品可在线升级，在此基础上建立驾驶智能化，可以提供高速、低速、复杂环境下的自动驾驶，解放消费者时间，建立乘坐空间智能化，提供更高级更丰富的人机交互，充分利用消费者的碎片化时间，提供社交、娱乐、办公等服务。
盈利预测与投资建议：行业的商业模式正在发生变化，新势力以各自独特的亮点初步成功塑造了自己的品牌，比如蔚来汽车的数字化运营，小鹏汽车的智能化，理想汽车的以用户为中心，老牌车企势力也在加速转型，在管理机制上进行创新，未来两者将同归一个赛道，推荐长城汽车（体制变革迎接新时代）、上汽集团（智能化技术储备丰厚）、广汽集团（组织体系加快转型），关注蔚来汽车、理想汽车、小鹏汽车，在供应链上建议关注智能化赛道，推荐福耀玻璃、华域汽车、星宇股份，建议关注新泉股份、伯特利。
风险提示：1）政策出台不及预期；2）电动车自燃带来的消费者信任风险；3）造车新势力经验不足、抗风险能力较弱
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