《大行報告》瑞銀:敏華(01999.HK)股價已調整過度 重申「買入」評級
瑞銀發表的研究報告指,敏華控股(01999.HK)股價自9月18日以來已累跌17%,表現大幅跑輸恆指,認為市場對公司毛利率及營銷開支方面壓力存在憂慮,該行認為市場弱勢亦進一步令股價反應放大,該行認為市場明顯低估部分亮點,包括是上半財年公司本地銷售或強過預期,而人民幣升值亦帶來正面影響,總體而言該行估計上半財年盈利將平穩或有溫和增長,而下半財年受惠毛利率提升及開支向下,將有較強的增長,而未來三年前景亦正面,予目標價13.5元,評級「買入」。
該行指出假設上半財年敏華毛利率跌一個百分點,而營銷開支比率升兩個百分點,其他情況不變下,公司上半財年盈利應按年跌13%,看似能解釋公司股價的弱勢,但該行認為數字或被過度解讀,認為數字主要是基於公司7至8月份的表現,而該行的基本情景估計上半財年毛利率僅跌0.75%,而營銷開支比率則升1.5個百分點,加上估計本地銷售強過預期,加上人民幣升值帶動,料上半財年盈利將維持穩定或溫和增長。
而在定價方面,公司國慶黃金周將加價5%至10%,相信足以抵銷原材料成本上升的影響,並帶動下半財年毛利率表現勝上半財年,在成本方面,部分於上半財年推出的一次性優惠料不會在下半財年重現,故將帶動公司營銷開支有所下降,更重要的是開店及宣傳等料將帶動下半財年及之後的收入增長,故料下半財年盈利將重拾增長,而展望2021及2022財年,該行料敏華盈利將分別升19%及26%。
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