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郭家耀: 外围转差港股或下试23,200 纸企涨价潮料利好
阿思达克 09-24 09:42
正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股周三(23日)再度急挫,市场忧虑经济前景,加上科技股再遭抛售,三大指数均录得显着跌幅收市。美元表现强势,美国十年期债息维持於0.67厘水平,油价走势靠稳,金价显着受压。港股预托证券普遍下跌,预料大市早段跟随低开。内地股市反覆靠稳,沪综指收市轻微上升,沪深两市成交额进一步减少,显示投资者取态审慎。

港股继续好淡争持,新经济类股份表现较佳,金融股则继续受压,拖累指数反弹乏力。外围再现抛售,预计对大市气氛有负面影响,指数或进一步下试23,200点水平,上方阻力下移至24,000点附近。

另市场分析指目前内地纸企库存不断下降,9月下旬逐步进入造纸行业的传统旺季。文化纸明年相关印刷资料需求将增加,以及明年春季教辅材印刷的需求逐步在今年秋季释放,而白卡纸需求也随着消费的复苏、限塑令的影响得到改善,因此旺季涨价有超预期兑现可能。

纸浆行业下游消费包括文化用纸消费、包装用纸消费、生活用纸消费三个领域。其中,文化用纸主要应用於印刷行业,例如印刷发行书籍课本和杂志报刊等;包装用纸主要应用於各行业产成品的包装需求和快递物流;生活用纸为最终消费品。从周期上来看,生活用纸全年消费无明显季节性,文化纸和包装纸的淡旺季则比较明显。

近期造纸业涨价潮出现,各大纸企近期密集发函涨价,单次提价幅度在每吨200元至300元人民币。不同於以往,这一轮涨价潮中,纸企一封涨价函中设置了两个新价格,中间间隔约10至15天,最终价格执行周期则从10月初开始。涨价消息将利好纸业股盈利表现,有望带动股价向好。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,没持有上述股份)~

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