《大行報告》花旗:匯控(00005.HK)正受中美政治不確定因素影響 料港銀未來數周受壓
花旗發表香港銀行業報告表示,香港銀行股再次受到新的政治不確定性壓力,據美國「金融犯罪執法網文件」(FinCEN)的相關報道,再次引發了投資者對銀行反洗錢做法和訴訟風險的擔憂。此外,中國商務部近日發布了關於「不可靠實體清單規定」,據《環球時報》消息指,匯控可能被列入名單。
該行留意到中國懲罰措施,如果一個實體被認定為「不可靠」,潛在採取措施包括,限制/禁止從事與中國有關的進出口活動、限制/禁止在中國投資、限制/禁止相關人員和運輸工具進入、限制/取消中國有關人員的工作許可、居留或居住資格及處以罰款等。
花旗指,匯控在中國大陸的敞口約佔貸款的4%,收入佔中單位數字(佔6%)、佔除稅前溢利佔13%。如果中國將其列入清單,即使不採取強硬措施,將令其客戶減少交易,中國大陸業務也可能受到不利影響。在香港的中國大陸客戶也可能避免與匯豐銀行進行不必要的交易。在最壞的情況下,匯豐銀行可能被迫撤出其在中國內地的投資,例如對交通銀行(03328.HK)的投資。該行予匯控「中性」評級及目標價34.6元。
至於渣打集團(02888.HK),花旗指渣打在中國大陸的敞口在百分比上類似於匯豐銀行。由於渣打一直積極參與「一帶一路」倡議,因此估計其所面臨的政治風險較小。由於政治風險加劇,其他香港銀行的股價可能在未來幾周內也回落,該行予渣打「買入」評級及目標價56.1元。
此外,與「金融犯罪執法網文件」相關的媒體報道,涉及銀行提交的大約2,100個可疑活動報告(SAR),這些報告包含1999年至2017年期間與涉嫌洗錢或其他潛在非法活動有關,這些大多是監管機構已知的遺留交易,並已由銀行在先前的訴訟和和解中得到解決,如匯控在2012年被罰款19億美元,渣打在2019年被罰款11億美元。然而,負面消息流很可能導致對銀行反洗錢行為的監管越來越嚴格,並進一步抑制投資者情緒。
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