中國生物製藥(01177.HK)：上半年抗腫瘤板塊增長強勁，創新藥收穫在即，維持“買入”評級，目標價10.67 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.67 港元
投資要點
上半年整體平穩增長，抗腫瘤板塊業績貢獻突出 ：公司 2020 年上半年實現營業收入 126.48 億元人民幣（下同），同比增長 1.0%；歸母淨利潤 12.13億元，同比下降 16.0%；調整歸母淨利潤 17.61 億元，同比增長 5.2%。若下半年疫情不出現反覆，公司經營有望迴歸正常的增長區間。從業務板塊來看，抗腫瘤藥物上半年收入強勁增長 56.2%，在營業收入中的佔比也進一步提升至 31.8%，成為公司最大的業務板塊。
創新藥逐步迎來收穫，產品結構有望進一步優化：公司目前有較多藥物處於研發階段，2020 年上半年亦取得了積極的進展，氟維司羣、布地奈德、人血白蛋白（獨家代理）等 20 多款產品獲批。僅從二季度來看，公司獲得了 8 個臨牀試驗批件、6 個生產批件和 3 個一致性評價批件，同時申報了 20 個 IND、1 個一致性評價以及 17 個 NDA。整體來看，公司研發推進順利，預計近幾年每年都將有 30 多款新產品上市。此外，公司數十款創新藥已進入臨牀階段，其中進展較快的是 PD-1 單抗（上市申請已於 2020年 5 月獲 NMPA 受理）、TQA3526（III 期臨牀）、TQB2450（III 期臨牀）等。隨着這些創新藥的陸續上市和銷售放量，創新藥在公司收入中的佔比將逐步提升，公司產品結構也將得到進一步優化，逐步由仿製向創新過渡，實現業績的長期可持續增長。
盈利預測與估值：我們維持 2020-2022 年預測收入 276.86、332.12、391.43億元，歸母淨利潤 33.97、41.61、50.83 億元，還原北京泰德無形資產攤銷後 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤為 38.07、45.71 和 54.93 億元。維持目標價16.0 港元，但考慮到公司於 7 月 20 日派發紅股導致股本由 125.82 億股擴大至 188.73 億股，目標價相應調整為 10.67 港元，對應 2020-2022 年分別為 53.36、43.55 和 35.66 倍市盈率，還原無形資產攤銷後對應 2020-2022年分別為 47.61、39.64 和 32.99 倍市盈率，20PEG 為 2.26，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：產品上市進度不及預期，重點品種價格降幅超預期，醫保控費力度加大。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
