《大行報告》中金:內地氫燃料電池國家獎勵政策落地 單車最高獎75萬人幣 向重卡傾斜
就國家財政部、工信部、科技部、發改委、國家能源局等五部委聯合發布《關於開展燃料電池汽車示範應用的通知》,對今年開始的四年「示範期」的氫燃料電池支持政策進行了初步明確,主要特點是以獎代補、地方主導、分區推廣與全產業鏈支持。中金發表研究報告,指專項積分鼓勵氫能供應,進一步完善燃料電池普及的基礎設施。《通知》要求示範城市群車用氫氣年產超5,000噸,對每公斤氫氣二氧化碳排放量低於5kg給出3分(人民幣)/百噸的獎勵,同時要求加氫站氫氣零售價格不高於35元人民幣/公斤,該行認為相關要求有望進一步提高氫燃料使用的經濟性,為燃料電池車的進一步推廣奠定基礎。
該行指,上述通知要求示範城市群推廣規模應超1,000輛,該行認為,華東、華北、東北、西北、西南、華中、華南等區域均有不同的低成本製氫模式,若全國範圍內形成10個以上的城市群,則截至2023年氫燃料汽車推廣的政策底線超過1萬輛;以平均每輛車(實車)獲得5分獎勵估計,1.5萬積分可支持每個城市群的國家獎勵上限約為3,000輛,則截至2023年氫燃料電池汽車推廣的政策頂有望超過3萬輛。
中金表示,從國家層面單車獎勵最高75.1萬人民幣,政策向重卡適度傾斜。測算得2021年裝配110kW燃料電池系統的31噸以上重卡可獲國家獎勵75.1萬人民幣(《通知》範圍內最高),2023年裝備50kW燃料電池系統的乘用車可獲國家獎勵29.5萬人民幣。該行測算得,2020年裝有110kW機組的31噸以上的重卡每kW功率獎勵金額上限為0.68元人民幣,而80kW的乘用車每kW獎勵上限僅為0.57元人民幣,該行認為政策總體向重卡傾斜。
該行估計內地氫燃料電池乘用車的額定功率50kW標準單車,今年可獲國家獎勵33.5萬人民幣、內地氫燃料電池乘用車的額定功率80kW標準的單車計,可獲國家獎勵45.2萬人民幣。
該行認為,具備巴拉德與錫裡斯(燃料電池商)雙方技術的濰柴動力(02338.HK)、氫燃料電池起步較早的上汽集團(600104.SH)、氫能戰略布局規劃完備的長城汽車(02333.HK)等傳統企業在氫燃料電池領域仍將具備較強的競爭。
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