思摩爾國際(06969.HK)2020中報點評：短期波動不改長期成長，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
疫情中快速恢復生產經營，上半年業績維持增長
2020H1實現營收38.94億元（+18.9%），調整後淨利潤13.07億元（+40.4%），調整項主要為可轉債與可轉換優先股的公允價值變動。一季度收入受疫情影響負增長8.8%，公司通過建立專責小組等措施快速恢復生產，二季度收入增速轉正，為38.9%。具體業務層面，toB業務保持增長，toC業務受零售終端疫情期間暫停營業影響略有下滑。財報發佈前後股價略有下挫，我們認為在行業長期成長邏輯與公司行業龍頭優勢不變的情況下，短期業績波動造成的股價回調提供了較好的買入機會。
PMTA申請正常推進，海外政策逐漸明朗
公司目前已向FDA提交了一款自有產品的PMTA申請，並將在2020年9月9日前提交相關產品的上市前申請。與此同時，公司還將配合客户準備相關產品的PMTA申請工作。PMTA審核要求較高且耗資巨大，單個公司申請費用可達千萬美元。我們認為，在監管逐步明朗的情況下，高標準嚴要求的審核有望促使電子煙市場進一步向龍頭集中。
看好賽道長期成長空間和中游龍頭地位，維持“買入”評級
電子煙作為一種尼古丁傳送系統，天然具有成癮性與高用户粘性，加之其減害特性符合健康生活的理念，未來在煙草市場中的滲透率有望提高。公司作為中游代工龍頭，有望憑藉其技術端和成本端的優勢持續擴大自身市場份額，同時保持與大客户的緊密合作，實現長期可持續的成長。預測2020-2022年的收入分別為102.03、122.52、157.72億元，利潤分別為34.27、43.15、55.97億元。維持“買入”評級和合理估值區間47.88~54.74港元。9月10日收盤價33.95港元對應2020-2022年預測PE分別為51.0、40.5和31.2倍。
風險提示
電子煙被發現重大健康風險；公司產品售價下跌；上游原材料成本大幅上漲。
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