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時代中國控股(01233.HK):銷售、舊改進展積極,利潤穩步釋放,維持“買入”評級,目標價17.58港元
格隆匯 09-16 14:50

機構:中泰證券

評級:買入

目標價:17.58港元

銷售增長持續提速,舊改獲取、轉化進展積極

銷售進度理想。公司八月/前八月合約銷售同比增速達 41.0%/14.4%,前八月完成全年銷售目標的 60%,高於去年同期的全年銷售完成率(55%)。全年可售貨值約 1500 億人民幣,我們認為公司達成 823 億銷售目標概率高。舊改持續提速。截止 19 年底公司城市更新項目總數超 120 個,潛在總建面約 4300 萬方,較 17 年底 1920 萬方潛在總建面大幅上升;進入 20 年,公司繼續積極拓展舊改版圖,截止年中,項目總數達 150,潛在總建面達 5200 萬方。上半年項目轉化基本符合預期,完成轉化 137 萬方,對應貨值 425 億;我 們認為公司的舊改業務已進入加速發展期,預計今年來自城市更新業務的淨利潤有望超過 19 年。中期來看,我們預計公司目前的城市更新儲備有望在未來 7-10 年轉化為土儲,有力的支持公司的銷售及盈利增長。

上半年收入確認略有延遲

由於物業交付與城市更新收入確認略有延遲,1H20 收入同比下降 6.4%至約 149.3 億;毛利率由去年同期的 32.5%以及全年的 29.3%下降至 26.9%,主要由於高毛利的城市更新業務在上半年收入減少;SG&A 佔收入比重 8.2%,較去年同期的 7.9%略有上升;核心應占淨利潤同比下降 8.5%至約 15.6 億。公司上半年維持了穩健的財務負債表:淨負債率71.0%,短債比 41.1%,現金對短債比 1.4x。

調整盈利預測,調整目標價至 17.58 港元,維持買入評級

綜合考慮疫情影響以及 7 月以來融資政策收緊,我們認為 20/21 年的項目結算將延後,我們下調 20/21 年核心淨利潤 13.1%/12.7%至 55.01 億/65.41 億人民幣。公司耕耘城市更新多年,項目儲備豐富,目前相關政策持續發力,我們認為公司將迎來城市更新項目的價值釋放期,銷售規模及利潤有望穩健增長。我們維持對公司基本面正面的看法。我們滾動至 20/21 年 5.0x PE,將目標價調整至 17.58 港元,目標價對應現價有 51.3%的升幅。

我們維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:(一)房地產政策大幅收緊;(二)人民幣匯率劇烈波動;(三)銷售不達預期。

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