黑石料利率反弹 股票投资回报步入「迷失十年」
黑石(Blackstone)(BX.US)执行副主席Tony James接受《CNBC》访问时表示,未来数年将为股票回报的「迷失十年」,并指企业将面对盈利增长困难的局面。他指股价或不会进一步上升,并已完全反映未来5年至10年盈利前景。
James指出,目前低利率或不会进一步下跌,并可能在未来数年返回相对正常水平。他亦指,企业将面临盈利受压的因素,包括税率增加、经营成本上涨、供应链效率减低及去全球化损害生产力,企业长期盈利增长将令人失望,未来5至10年投资股票的回报将很贫乏。
James亦认为,美联储史无前例规模的救市推动股市上升,但倘若没有相关行动,将有很大风险出现下降螺旋,并导致信贷问题,且非常快速地透过市场传导。
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