新東方在線(01797.HK)：免費課程引流策略成功，K12業務增長可期，維持“買入”評級，目標價 42.7 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：42.7 港元
投資要點
公司收入穩定增長，K12 業務擴張開始提速：
公司2020 財年實現營收 10.81 億元，同比增長 17.6%，由於公司處於大規模擴張期，因此成本及費用均由大幅提升，另一方面新佈局城市需要 1 到 2 年時間實現扭虧，最終年內公司實現虧損 7.58 億元，較去年同期虧損額 6410.9 萬元有較大提升。公司在疫情期間向全國學生提供免費課程和服務，實現平台流量大幅增長，學生付費人次大幅提升，從 2019 財年的 217.9 萬人增加至 2020 財年的 285.2 萬人。
K12 業務持續投入搶佔市場份額：
公司 K-12 業務收入同比增長 85.4%，達到 2.951 億元，付費學生人次同比大幅增長 224.5%，達 185.6 萬。其中新東方在線 K-12 課程的付費學生人次同比增長 269.4%。而東方優播課程的付費學生人次同比增長 184.2%，成功布局全國 24 個省份的 172 個城市，隨着東方優播在全國範圍內的不斷擴張和推廣，規模優勢開始顯現。
獲得融資，現金流壓力得到釋放：
公司獲得母公司新東方集團及董事俞敏洪 17.83 億港元融資，將能夠繼續大力發展 K12 在線教育業務。我們認為此次融資將極大緩解公司未來幾年內的現金流壓力，同時加速公司在線教育業務人員擴張與技術升級，為 K12 業務的擴張與品牌宣傳提供充足的彈藥支持
維持“買入”評級，目標價 42.7 港元：
我們給予大學業務 2022 財年 40 倍 PE，對應估值 122 億港幣。K12 業務目前虧損，給予 2022 財年 26 倍 PS，對應估值 276 億港幣。學前教育業務目前體量較小，給予 5 倍 2022 財年 PS，對應估值 3.6 億港幣，公司對應市值為 402 億港幣，目前市值 330 億港幣，有 20%的上升空間，給予“買入”評級。
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