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寶龍地產(01238.HK):企業競爭力繼續得到驗證,維持“買入”評級,目標價7.58港元
格隆匯 09-15 14:49

機構:中泰證券

評級:買入

目標價:7.58港元

開發+商業雙輪驅動模式漸入佳境

商管板塊發展積極。根據中指研究院,寶龍的商業管理板塊在 2020 年商業地產百強綜合實力排名中位列全國第四。9 月 10 日子公司寶龍商管(9909 HK)公告向管理層增發及獎勵股份:1)陳德力先生(寶龍地產聯席總裁,寶龍商管執行總裁)以 24.30 港元每股的價格認購 1125 萬寶龍商管發行的新股,總出資 2.73 億港元;2)除 1)外,寶龍商管另以增發新股形式獎勵陳先生 1125 萬股獎勵股份。管理層入股體現其對商管發展的信心及承諾。我們認為有競爭力的商管能力將有助於寶龍地產通過商業+住宅合作拿地方式,維持較低的土地成本。物業銷售貨值充沛。截止 20 年中,公司總確權土儲 2858.9 萬方,總可售貨值約 3858 億,平均土地成本 3201 元,地貨比約 20.8%;土儲年期(總貨值/20 年銷售目標)為 5.1。整體土儲充沛且成本合理。公司 8 月/前 8 月合約銷售同比增47.6%/15.7%,已完成全年目標 61.6%,今年銷售達標可期。2020 年為公司成立三十週年,公司提出了未來五年實現“雙百雙千”的戰略目標(自持購物中心超百座,每年核心利潤超百億,權益銷售超千億,市值超千億),我們認為公司開發+運營雙輪驅動模式漸入佳境,成長路徑清晰,中期目標可見度高。

中期盈利能力維持強勁,信用展望升至正面

上半年歸母核心淨利潤同比增 44.3%至 18.0 億元,歸母核心淨利潤率由去年同期的 10.2%上升至 10.5%:1)收入同比增 40.2%至 171.7 億元;2)整體毛利率 37.1%,相對19H1/19FY 的 38.8%/36.4%維持穩定;3)SG&A 對收入比由去年同期的 8.6%下降至今年的 6.7%。公司宣派中期股息 0.12 港元/股,同比增 33.3%,派息率約 25%,與去年基本持平。總債務 592.5 億元,較去年年底上升略微 7.2%,其中 1 年以內到期債務佔比 38.3%,淨負債率 79.9%,較去年年低的 81.2%略有下降。穆迪/標普分別於 8 月 31 日/8 月 27 日上調寶龍地產評級展望至正面,體現公司資產負債表穩健性不斷提升。

上調盈利預測,上調目標價至 7.58 港元

我們認為公司公司土地儲備充足,收入來源、拿地渠道多元化,住宅+商業雙輪驅動模式漸入佳境,公司有望在持續錄得由於行業平均的增速。考慮公司銷售管理成本管控顯著優於預期,我們上調 20/21/22 年盈利預測 5.7%/10.2%/11.5%至 32.8 億/40.9 億/52.67 億。我們滾動至 7.5x 20/21 年 PE,將目標價上調至 7.58 港元。目標價對前收市價有 30.5%的上升空間,我們重申“買入”評級。

風險提示:(一)銷售不達預期;(二)人民幣匯率波動加劇;(三)疫情發展超預期。

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