農夫山泉(09633.HK)：包裝水黃金賽道的領跑者，給予“推薦”評級，目標價38.79 港元
機構：國聯證券
評級：推薦
目標價：38.79 港元
投資要點：
農夫山泉：包裝水行業龍頭，領跑黃金賽道
農夫山泉以生產包裝水起家，涉足軟飲細分品類，未來將覆蓋全品類。目前，公司主營包裝水、果汁、茶飲料和功能飲料四個品類，是包裝水行業龍頭。近年，公司營收持續17%的高增速，55%的毛利率同業領先，主營的包裝水業務處於黃金賽道，未來將持續受益於市場量價齊升紅利。
軟飲料市場集中度低空間大，行業龍頭有望受益於集中度提升
軟飲料作為基礎快消品在中國擁有廣闊市場，近年增速穩定在5%左右，但對比發達國家，仍有廣闊空間。當前行業集中度較低，CR10僅42.5%。公司作為行業龍頭，未來有望受益於市場集中度提升。
水源地+營銷能力+銷售渠道，三重優勢構建穩固基礎
公司擁有三重優勢，構建寬廣護城河。1）佈局水源地+果園，穩固原料基礎。2）公司營銷能力突出，通過多種手段打造品牌優勢，積聚忠實消費者。3）銷售渠道變革，放權讓利終端，效率提升，增強競爭力。
高線消費升級+下沉挖掘潛力，雙重驅動公司營收增長
公司受益於快消品的消費升級健康意識的轉變，在夯實主營產品的基礎上，推出的細化消費場景的產品有望迎來高增速，推高客單價。銷售渠道上，伴隨逐漸完善的下沉渠道，深挖鄉鎮市場消費潛力，打開公司增量空間。
盈利預測
預計公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤分別為53.70/61.95/71.93億元，EPS分別為0.48/0.55/0.65元，對應PE分別為65.31/57.47/49.07,DCF估值為38.79港元。公司的品牌價值伴隨愈漸完善的銷售渠道為公司經營保駕護航，看好公司未來成長空間，結合相對和絕對估值，給予“推薦”評級。
風險提示
1） 水源地水質惡化的風險。2）原材料及包裝材料價格波動的風險。3）下沉渠道推進不及預期的風險。4）管理層變動的風險。
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