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中國東方航空股份(00670.HK):市場復甦先量後價,2021年供需難均衡,維持“增持“評級,目標價 5.00港元
格隆匯 09-10 14:42

機構:國泰君安

評級:增持

目標價:5.00港元

本報告導讀:

上半年客運承壓明顯,三季度有望明顯減虧。考慮海外疫情影響時間超出我們先前預期,預計 2021 年行業供需實現均衡難度較大,盈利恢復有待 2022 年。

摘要:

維持增持評級。東航堅持精細化收益與成本管控,並首創隨心飛催化需求復甦。預計國際市場復甦緩慢曲折,下調 2020-22 年淨利至 -120/-18/31 億元人民幣(原-92/47/68)。東航商務快線資源豐厚,長期盈利能力穩健,維持目標價 5.00 元港幣,相當於 1.3 倍 PB。

下半年客運主導減虧。上半年歸母淨利-85 億元,其中 Q2-46 億元。估算全行業 Q2 客運虧損環比 Q1 擴大,整體利潤環比減虧源於貨運市場短期火爆,創紀錄的貨運盈利彌補部分客運虧損。而東航物流未在上市公司體內,貨運盈利相對有限。跟蹤貨運量價已於 5 月底開始回落,預計下半年全行業貨運盈利將縮減,客運將接替主導減虧節奏。

疫情影響超預期,下調盈利預測。航空市場復甦先量後價,年內客流將恢復至接近 2019 年同期,而票價仍可能持續低迷。預計 2020 年需求(量*價)相當於 2019 年四成,2021 年恢復八成,2022 年有望基本恢復。預計 2021 年行業仍可能普遍虧損,盈利恢復有待 2022 年。

基準情景假設:由“下半年全球疫情得到有效控制”調整為“假設全球疫情 2021 年內得到有效控制”。國際客流假設:由“2021 年恢復複合正增長”調整為“2021 年恢復至 2019 年的五成,2022 年基本恢復”。

(1)ASK 假設:下調 2020-21 年至 2019 年的-49%/-5%(原-33%/+10%)。

(2)座收假設:下調 2020-21 年同比至-21%/+6%(原-19%/+10%)。

(3)油價:假設以 8 月末水平持續,全年同比降 30%(原-40%)。

(4)貨運收入:上調 2020 年同比至+30%(原-10%)。

“隨心飛”順應需求結構性復甦。東航首創隨心飛產品,市場營銷效應巨大,並引發業界跟進創新。上半年高頻旅客佔比同比降五成,且新增旅客大幅增長,因私旅客佔比提升明顯。隨心飛順應需求趨勢,催化需求復甦,引流直銷渠道。疫情衝擊下,我們欣喜地看到了公司的積極作為與 2C 產品創新,將引領行業長期經營能力持續優化提升。

風險提示。增發攤薄,疫情持續,經濟下行,匯率油價,安全事故。

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