友邦保險(01299.HK)：中國內地成為友邦主要市場，Q2新單有所改善，維持“買入”評級
機構：中銀國際
評級：買入
友邦保險發佈 2020年中報，上半年營運利潤同比-13%（根據公司公告，按照固定匯率口徑，下同），NBV同比-37%，NBV margin下降 11.1個百分點至 54.4%。
中國內地市場 Q2改善明顯，上半年表現超預期:（1）由於 2月開始中國內地遊客赴港人數下滑，中國香港地區銷售保險受限，疊加上半年受到疫情影響，中國香港地區新單下滑明顯，上半年新單同比-68%。中國內地市場成為中國地區主要業績貢獻地。2020年上半年中國內地 NBV同比下滑 13%，二季度新單有所改善；（2）中國內地市場受益於監管壽險市場改革，NBV margin始終領先其他市場，上半年 NBV margin實現 81.8%，相較於 1H2019下降 11.4個百分點（1H2019 為 93.2%）。全年新單低位已過，下半年中國香港地區疫情逐步控制及好轉，預計 NBV 有望整體改善，疊加 2019年下半年中國香港地區新單低基數，疫情後更加重視健康險等因素，NBV margin有望回升，中國內地地區 NBV 全年有望前低後高。
東南亞地區新業務價值下滑已在預期內。泰國/新加坡/馬來西亞/其他市場新業務價值同比變動-7%/-24%/-36%/+10%，其中馬來西亞新業務價值同比下滑明顯，主要為 4月中旬出行限制導致。考慮東南亞國家 3月份受疫情影響，限制出行，上半年新業務價值下滑已在預期中。但由於東南亞國家疫情控制情況弱於中國內地地區，給全年新業務價值增長帶來不確定性。
投資建議
上半年受到疫情影響，友邦保險各地區新單表現不佳。但中國內地地區上半年貢獻新業務業績部分的 38%，在負債端承壓的外部壞境下表現出友邦保險自身產品的價值韌性。隨着未來中國內地市場陸續開放保險市場，中國內地市場重要性不斷增強，具有潛在增長機會。作為長期價值投資標的，目前公司 2020 P/EV 1.8，具有配置價值，維持買入評級。
風險提示
保障型保險產品保費增速不及預期；市場波動對行業業績、估值的雙重影響；利率下行帶來的險企投資不確定性。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
