星展:科網股回調非因基本面轉差 續看好電商及線上遊戲增長
星展香港及內地電訊及科技行業分析師譚紫宏出席網上發布會時表示,近日科網股回調有不同原因,包括是受市場氣氛影響等影響,但認為回調並非因基本面變差,故未有改變其投資建議,相信只是短期因氣氛轉差而受壓,基本面並無負面變化。
針對美國制裁中國科技公司,他指出騰訊(00700.HK)旗下WeChat的美國用戶佔比很細,收入佔比亦輕微,故料影響不大。在遊戲方面由於未知制裁內容,故有數個思考方向,假如制裁針對騰訊自營的PUBG遊戲,估計對其遊戲收入影響僅低單位數,倘制裁擴大至騰訊有份投資的遊戲公司如Supercell及Riot Games等,計及相關因素對收入的影響亦僅低單位數,故料影響不大。
他表示新冠肺炎帶動內地互聯網使用時數有所增長,估計2020年總計會有10%至20%的增長,而調查顯示一、二線城市互聯網使用時間增長不及三、四線城市,很多公司如阿里(09988.HK)、併多多(PDD.US)及京東(09618.HK)等均會開始聚焦於三、四線城市,認為這些地區具長遠增長潛力。
在收入層面,他認為電商及線上遊戲收入強勁,當中電商今年上半年收入增長26%,料下半年續增長46%,而線上遊戲上半年收入增長已達19%,料下半年將增25%,相信這兩個領域未來增長亦會較快,認為可留意相關的股份。譚紫宏表示,電商行業收入很多是源於廣告,而平台本身非賺錢主力,以阿里為例,旗下的淘寶亦是以廣告收入為主,更值得留意的是直播廣告收入增長強勁,今明兩年估計將佔整體廣告收入的15%及18%,料品牌未來亦會加強在直播方面的投入。
在選股方面,他相信線上遊戲受惠「居家抗疫」概念,加上現時遊戲的生命週期較長,《王者榮耀》及《和平精英》等仍受捧,故可留意騰訊及網易(09999.HK)。而電商行業復甦則主要受惠電子產品及日用品消費,奢侈品消費復甦則料較慢,認為可留意在三線以下的城市有接觸面的企業包括京東及阿里。
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