特步國際(01368.HK)：疫情及非現金項目影響利潤表現，靜待復甦，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
非現金項目影響利潤表現，維持高派息比例
2020 上半年，公司實現收入 36.8 億，同比+10%，經營利潤 5 億元，同比-30%，歸母淨利潤 2.48 億元，同比-47%；其中特步主品牌收入-4.6%，不含應收賬款撥備影響，經營利潤同比-9.1%。毛利率-4.1pp至 40.05%，預計下半年維持 40%-41%；庫存週轉天數上升至 94 天，應收賬款週轉天數上升至 137 天，應付賬款週轉天數上升至 142 天，渠道庫存約 5.5 月，有信心回到 5 個月左右。集團保持淨現金 21.6 億，有息負債比率下降至 18.1%。
主品牌保持性價比定位，多品牌空間可期
1）主品牌：特步未來輕微下調加價倍率，對毛利率影響 2%左右；3-5年，預計大貨擴大單店面積，兒童店鋪數量每年增長 200-300 家。2）新品牌：蓋世威和帕拉丁在今年上半年佔集團 12.5%，上半年銷售為4.59 億，營業虧損為 4800 萬，預計下半年表現與上半年接近；蓋世威直營約 42 家店，今明兩年在整合階段；帕拉丁直營約 34 家店，團隊基本整合完成，在 4 個新品牌中表現突出。索康尼已在 6 月開始擴張，反應好於預期，開店計劃減少後預計虧損減少 1000 萬元。邁樂於今年 3 月登陸天貓旗艦店，618 山野王者售罄率達到 70%。 ? 風險提示1.宏觀經濟與消費需求大幅下行；2.新品牌發展不及預期，加大利潤拖累；3.市場的系統性風險。
投資建議：疫情影響相對可控，多品牌發展路徑清晰
公司今年上半年受疫情和多品牌初期孵化影響，業績有所拖累但現金情況良好，期待公司在未來疫情過後迎來主品牌的穩健發展和新品牌的孵化蜕變。我們維持盈利預測，預計公司 20-22 年淨利潤同增-42.2%/54.1%/22.4%， EPS 分別為 0.17/0.26/0.32 元，對應 PE 分為為 13.9x/9.0x/7.4x。考慮到目前內需恢復趨勢與公司現金情況均較好，我們維持合理估值，對應 2021 年 PE 11x-12x，合理估值 3.1-3.4 港元，維持“買入”評級。
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