國藥控股(01099.HK):2020年第二季度復甦不及預期,維持“收集”評級,目標價 26.00 港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:26.00 港元
2020 年上半年業績略低於預期。國藥控股在 2020 年上半年分別錄得收入人民幣 203,765百萬元/ 股東淨利人民幣 2,896 百萬元,分別同比增長 1.0%/ -2.7%。藥品分銷板塊/ 零售藥房板塊/ 醫療器械板塊分別錄得(4.4)%/ 24.6%/ 23.6%的同比銷售增長。2020 年第二季度復甦不及預期。我們估算公司 2020 年第二季度的收入以及股東淨利分別同比增長 2.7%以及 13.8%。
我們預期 2020 年下半年銷售將繼續復甦而利潤率相對平穩。我們預期 2020 年下半年銷售將隨着醫療機構就診量恢復而繼續復甦,但亦將承受來自帶量採購進一步推行的壓力。利潤率預計將維持穩定:毛利率因帶量採購受到的壓力可以通過產品結構調整而緩解;財務費用率預計將下降並抵消銷售費用率因業務擴張和轉型而上升的影響。
2020 年-2022 年每股淨利分別下調 2.8%/ 6.1%/ 5.7%至人民幣 2.128 元/ 人民幣 2.370 元/ 人民幣 2.652 元。下調目標價至 26.00 港元,目標價對應 11.1 倍 2020 年市盈率以及 10.0倍 2021 年市盈率。股價有 37.1%的上升空間,重申“收集”。

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