阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)：業績超預期，核心電商依然穩固，給予“買入”評級，目標價335港元
機構：浦發銀行
評級：買入
目標價：335.0港元
阿里巴巴（9988.HK）1QFY21 業績：業績超預期，核心電商依然穩固
維持買入評級，提升目標價至33 港元，潛在升幅19.4%。 ? 收入利潤均超預期： 阿里巴巴近期公佈 1QFY21 業績，收入同比增長34%，達到1538億人民幣，與 SPDBI 預測一致（較預測高 0.3%），超市場預期 4%，新零售和雲計算保持強勁增長；淨利潤為 464 億，同比增長 143%，主要為投資收益大幅增加；調整後淨利潤 395 億，同比增長 28%，高於市場預期 9%。
電商基本盤穩固，新零售保持強勁增長勢頭：本季度，核心業務中國零售同比增長 34%，其中新零售業務表現亮眼。包括天貓超市和盒馬業務等在內的新零售業務，保持強勁增長勢頭，同比增 80%，未來仍將是中國零售業務的主要增長點。傳統電商保持健康增長，同比增 21%。平台年度活躍用户數達到 7.42 億，環比增加 1600 萬，新增主要來自於低線城市。淘寶特價版，自 3 月份推出以來，用户增長迅猛，MAU 已達到 4000 萬，阿里巴巴將繼續加大在下沉市場的滲透。直播電商也提升了用户的消費頻次，淘寶直播 GMV 同比增長超過 100%，未來和短視頻平台的合作也將進一步加強。
新業務虧損逐漸收窄：本季度，雲計算同比增長 59%，由於強勁的市場需求，我們預計全年收入增速維持 60%。同時，雲業務虧損繼續收窄，調整後 EBITA 率為-3%，去年同期為-5%，我們預計最快有望在本財年實現單季度盈利；本地生活服務也從疫情中恢復，同比增 長 15%（上季度同比下降 8%），且即時配送業務在本季度單筆訂單盈利轉正，運營效率逐漸提升。此外，我們認為同城零售增長空間巨大，也將帶來更多協同。
維持買入評級，提升目標價至 335 港元：基於新業務快速增長和虧損收窄，我們將 FY21-23 年收入上調 0.2%、0.1%和 0.1%；FY21-23年調整後淨利潤分別上調 2.8%、1.3%和 0%。基於分部加總的目標價上調至 335 港元，分別對應 38x 和 28x 的 FY21E 和 FY22E 市盈率。 ? 投資風險： 宏觀經濟；競爭激烈。
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