牛熊異動 | 股價創新高,海底撈認購證漲50%
8月28日,海底撈(06862.HK)股價續刷新高,相關衍生品海撈摩通零九購A(23776.HK)上升超50%。
有券商發佈報告,餐飲行業持續回暖,預期公司將在下半年迎來顯著反彈。隨着疫情進入常態化,餐飲行業復甦趨勢向好,根據國家統計局數據,7 月餐飲收入降幅比 6 月收窄4.2pct,連續四個月改善,餐飲業整體恢復已近九成。而且我們認爲疫情強化了餐飲行業馬太效應,行業復甦將呈現兩極分化,本就有較強獲客能力的頭部品牌抗風險能力更強;而與其他連鎖餐飲相比,海底撈這類擁有較強菜品“標籤化”的品牌復甦情況將更爲樂觀,將在下半年迎來顯著反彈。公司上半年共推出超過 91 種新菜品,並且將加強菜品研發力度,新品的推出將帶動客單價持續健康向上。盈利預測與投資評級:隨着疫情進入常態化,餐飲行業復甦趨勢向好,公司翻檯率已恢復八成,持續看好公司未來長期發展。我們預計公司 2020-2022 年淨利潤分別爲 18.8/49.1/61.1 億元,對應 EPS 分別爲 0.36/0.93/1.15 元。當前股價對應 PE 值分別爲 114/44/35 倍,維持“強烈推薦”評級。
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