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大和:削人保、財險、太保盈測 維持公司H股目標價及評級不變
格隆匯 08-25 16:02

中國人保(1339.HK)、中國財險(2328.HK)及中國太保(2601.HK)早前公佈中期業績,並舉行了投資者的業績簡報會。

大和表示,中國人保上半年壽險新業務價值按年增長19%,或是上市的保險企業中最高。該行重申對中國人保的目標價4.6港元,以及買入評級。由於較低的產險收入,因而將2020至2021年的盈利預測下調1%至5%,而壽險盈利能力改善,部分緩解了有關情況。該行又指出,市場目前尚未完全意識到集團非財產險業務的價值。

該行指,中國財險上半年信用保險的保費收入按年跌59%,由於損失增加,該行將中國財險2020年至2022年的每股盈利預測降低4%至9%。儘管即將實施的汽車保險管制,或會為保費增長及市場情緒帶來短期阻力,但大和認為,中國財險的情況將較同業理想。維持中國財險目標價10港元,重申買入評級。

至於中國太保,大和預期,集團上半年的新業務價值表現疲弱,導致剩餘邊際利潤率增長放緩,預計未來幾年的税後營運溢利(OPAT)亦將放緩。該行又指,有投資者期望集團的派息與OPAT掛勾,但管理層拒絕就此評論,因此認為市場或對中國太保的派息能見度和可持續性過份樂觀。鑑於估計集團今年OPAT今年增長21%,淨利潤將按年跌9%,因而預計今年的總股息將增長6%,而全年新業務價值將跌8%。大和維持中國太保目標價22.75港元,評級為持有,並將2021年至2022年的每股盈利預測下調1%至2%。

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