頤海國際(01579.HK):盛宴才剛開啟,三大維度看頤海國際,給予“買入”評級,目標價 130 港元
機構:浦發銀行
評級:買入
目標價:130 港元
頤海橫跨複合調味品和新方便食品兩大優質賽道,憑藉趨勢紅利、渠道開拓和「海底撈」品牌優勢,有效投喂渴求美味和便捷的消費者。我們認為,頤海具備優秀消費企業的雛形,消費黏性和品牌張力將在未來業績中持續釋放。預測公司 2019-22 年收入和淨利潤複合年增長 42%和 50%,首予買入,目標價 130 港元。
傳承美味的生意。複合調味品和方便食品歸根結底是口味的比拼,品質和美味是企業成為長期贏家的核心因素。消費者一旦形成強記憶和口味黏性,產品和品牌將擁有扇貝型生命週期,這也是為何調味品行業可以在收入增速、盈利能力和回報率方面勝出其他快消品行業。頤海相較老牌食品龍頭,更加聚焦趨勢品類;相較初創企業,更具品牌、全渠道和供應鏈優勢,是複合調味品和方便食品賽道的優秀投資標的。
三大維度看頤海。我們透過賽道視角,自上而下從收入成長空間、盈利能力和產品生命週期三大維度分析頤海,因而對頤海的長期盈利能力較市場更為樂觀。頤海涉足兩條大容量、高增長和低滲透的優質賽道,趨勢紅利、渠道擴張、公司機制,加上同宗兄弟「海底撈」品牌助力,正加速成長為中國領先的複合調味品和方便速食運營商,兼具收入成長性和卓越利潤率,有能力穿越週期,傳承百年。
首予買入評級。鑑於頤海持續推新和改良強勢單品,並積極擴張和深耕 C 端渠道,而海底撈也不斷快速擴張,我們預計頤海 2019-22 年收入複合年增長 42%(高於市場預期:31%)。加上規模槓桿、品牌效應和公司內部激勵機制,我們預計頤海淨利潤三年複合年增長 50%(高於市場預期:33%)。基於50 倍 2022 年市盈率,予以頤海 130 港元目標價。下行風險:C 端競爭加劇;海底撈展店慢於預期;消費者口味轉換。

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