中集安瑞科(03899.HK)2020年中期业绩点评：疫情影响海外市场需求，下半年景气度有望回升，维持“买入”评级
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
◆业绩短期承压，现金流维持稳定
中集安瑞科 2020 年上半年实现营业收入 53.2 亿人民币，同比下降19.2%；实现归母净利润 2.2 亿人民币，同比下降 43.6%；每股收益 0.11元人民币。综合毛利率为 14.2%，同比下降 1.1 个百分点。公司在疫情期间严格控制资本支出，实现经营性现金流入 2.3 亿元，好于去年同期。
◆化工与液态食品板块收入不及预期，下半年景气度有望回升
2020 年上半年，公司清洁能源分部收入 29.9 亿人民币，同比下降4.1%；化工环境分部收入 10.7 亿人民币，同比下降 44.5%；液态食品分部收入 10.2 亿人民币，同比下降 32.2%。化工和液态食品分部收入大幅下滑，主要由于疫情严重冲击海外市场需求，且工程类项目有部分海外施工现场停工，影响上半年的收入确认；随着海外工程的逐步复工，预计下半年确认收入金额将出现回升。
◆在手订单保持充足，延期订单或在下半年交付
截止 2020 年 7 月，公司在手订单为 102 亿元，同比基本持平。其中清洁能源相关的订单为 49 亿，同比增长 11%。由于新冠疫情，全球运输设备相关订单处于较低水平，海外员工不能如期到岗，但在此期间公司订单基本未出现取消的情况。公司在国内快速实现了复产复工，且海外复工已明显好转，预计下半年公司会交付更多延期订单。
◆政策推动清洁能源转型，长期趋势仍然向好
2020 年是完成储气调峰指标的最后一年。随着国家管网公司成立，城市燃气公司也在加强自身气源储备能力，向更规模化、区域集约化，跨地联合的储气设施发展；地下储气库、沿海 LNG 接收站和区域大型 LNG 储罐等设施的建设，未来仍将推动公司清洁能源业务稳健成长。
◆维持“买入”评级
我们下调公司 20-22 年 EPS 预测至 0.37/0.46/0.55 元人民币，以反映全球疫情冲击对公司业务，特别是化工和液态食品业务的影响。公司积极应对疫情，下半年需求景气度有望复苏，维持“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：政策变化风险、油气价格波动风险、海外业务发展不顺风险。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
