《業績前瞻》券商料工行(01398.HK)中期純利最多倒退一成 關注撥備趨升
工商銀行(01398.HK)將於本周五(28日)公布中期業績，市場料新冠疫情導致不良貸款趨升，在監管引導內銀加大撥備，以應對未來潛在不良貸款壓力，估計第二季內銀撥備計提量加大及信用成本抽高，據中國銀監會早前數據，內地商業銀行上半年累計實現淨利潤按年跌9.4%(其中大型銀行跌12%)、截至第二季末的不良貸款餘額及不良率「雙升」。
本網綜合4間券商預期工行今年上半年錄純利介乎1,510.43億元至1,698億人民幣，較2019年上半年1,679.31億人民幣，按年跌10.1%至升1.1%，中位數為1,662億人民幣，按年跌1%。
雖然內地近月經濟數據改善，但中銀監曾指由於採逆周期措施，不良貸款風險暴露可能延遲，投資者將關注內銀的貸款質量、撥備及不良貸款趨勢等，關注市場潛在下調對內銀的盈利及股息的預測。
【關注撥備升 聚焦不良率】
摩根大通估計工行今年上半年純利1,510.43億人民幣按年倒退10%(較2019年下半年按半年升5%)、料工行上半年淨利息收入按年升5%至3,131.71億人民幣，料淨息差按年收窄12個基點至2.17%、估計期內資產減值損失按年增三成、撥備覆蓋率為195.8%、料不良貨款比率1.48%按年持平(按半年則升5個基點)。該行料工行股本回報率降至11.2%、成本收入比率降至21.9%、估計其一級資本充足率為13.51%。該行料投資者聚焦工行的資產質素(如不良貸款比率上升)及淨息差收窄。
瑞銀發表報告表示，預期內銀第二季及上半年純利將按年倒退，主要由於季內撥備增加，由不良貸款分類要求提升及新型肺炎疫情所帶動，相信次季數字於現周期仍未見頂，尤其是企業貸款方面。
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本網綜合4間券商預期工行今年上半年錄純利介乎1,510.43億元至1,698億人民幣，較2019年上半年1,679.31億人民幣，按年跌10.1%至升1.1%，中位數為1,662億人民幣，按年跌1%。
券商│今年上半年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
高盛│1,698億元│+1.1%
野村│1,679.31億元│持平
瑞銀│1,644億元│-2.1%
摩根大通│1,510.43億元│-10.1%
按工行2019年上半年純利1,679.31億元人民幣計
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綜合2間券商預期工行今年上半年錄資產減值損失介乎1,150.49億元至1,285.62億人民幣，較2019年上半年991.8億人民幣，按年升16%至升29.6%。
券商│今年上半年資產減值損失預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
摩根大通│1,285.62億元│+29.6%
瑞銀│1,150.49億元│+16%
按工行2019年上半年資產減值損失991.8億人民幣計
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綜合2間券商預測工行今年上半年不良貸款率1.48%至1.51%，較2019年上半年1.48%，按年下跌0.03個百分點至持平。
券商│今年上半年不良貸款率預測│按年變幅
摩根大通│1.48%│持平
野村│1.51%│下跌0.03個百分點
按工行2019年上半年不良貸款率1.48%計
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