中國宏橋(01378.HK)：首次派發中期股息，高利潤有望延續，維持“買入”評級，目標價6.99 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.99 港元
投資要點
公司發佈2020 上半年業績：收入同比減少 3.6%至 399.4 億元，毛利減少 15.4%至64.7 億元，毛利率下降 2.2ppt 至 16.2%，歸母淨利潤 28.3 億元，同比升 14.3%。每股基本盈利 0.330 元，擬派發中期股息每股 15 港仙。
收入下降主要是由於期內電解鋁售價下降所致，電解鋁板塊毛利率打平，氧化鋁板塊和鋁加工板塊拖累整體毛利率下降，由於減值減少以及財務費用降低，從而導致淨利潤增加。
電解鋁成本下移，盈利能力打平。鋁合金產品產量 274.1 萬噸，同比減少 4.1%。電解鋁價格同比下降 4.0%，煤炭、鋁土礦海運費用、陽極碳和液鹼價格均有所下降，我們推算電解鋁噸成本同比降 5.0%，噸毛利 2068 元，毛利率 17.9%，較去年同期打平。雲南產能搬遷計劃如期推進，部分生產線計劃於四季度投產，整體成本預計與大本營持平。
氧化鋁外銷量增加，但價格持續低迷，盈虧平衡。2019 年中投產了 100 萬噸氧化鋁，且電解鋁板塊自用氧化鋁減少，氧化鋁銷量 310 萬噸，同比增加 29%。外銷氧化鋁平均售價同比下滑 19.4%，我們推算公司氧化鋁噸毛利約 200 元，毛利率 10%，扣除費用後幾近盈虧平衡。
財務費用下降明顯，同比減少 7.1 億元/-24.4%，環比減少 0.9 億元/-3.7%。疫情壓力下，公司逆勢加強賬期管理。貿易應收賬款降至 95 億元，應收賬款週轉天數 43 天。
行業展望：行業供給端新增產能投放對 2020 年實際衝擊有限，需求端趨勢邊際轉好，成本端氧化鋁長期過剩趨勢未變，鋁錠庫存處於近 3 年同期最低水平，鋁企的利潤有望在當前較好水平延續。
我們的觀點：公司首次派發中期股息，股息率超過 40%，當前估值對應 2020E潛在股息率超過 9%，穩定的高派息政策有望成為估值修復的催化劑。我們預計公司 2020-2021 年歸母淨利潤分別為 76.94（較前值上調 22%，上調鋁價中樞）、82.45（較前值上調 3%）及 87.90 億元（較前值上調 1%），目標價上調至 6.99 港元。
風險提示：自備電廠清理整頓、幾內亞政局不穩、需求不及預期。
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