中國飛鶴(06186.HK)：飛鶴再次證明奶粉即將進入一超多強時代，給予“買入”評級
機構：華西證券
評級：買入
事件概述： 8 月 18 日，中國飛鶴髮布 2020 年中期業績，2020H1 公司實現收入 87.07 億元，同比增長 47.8%；毛利 61.76 億元，同比增長 55.4%；公司持有人應占利潤 27.53 億元，同比增長57.2%；每股基本盈利 0.31 元。
主要觀點: 收入增量冠絕同行，淨利率傲視羣雄，均超預期增長 2020H1 公司實現收入 87.07 億元，同比增長 47.8%。從增速來看，遠超市場和 wind 一致預期 30%的增長，且從市場對比來看，將是頭部企業中增速最快的兩家奶粉企業之一。整體來看，公司增速和增量及淨利率都超市場一致預期。飛鶴是國內極少可以做到的品牌+渠道雙輪驅動的公司，且能夠迎合當前品牌+渠道驅動的母嬰時代發展，今年再次收穫眾多良好口碑，實力再次夯實，長期持續看好！
疫情下快速反應+強大體系和執行力保障上半年快速發展
整體來看，公司較同行更早的轉變線上思路且更快加強二季度（3 月末到 4 月初）去庫存工作，投放大量活動配合，推動份額快速提升，持續搶佔弱勢國產品牌和受供應鏈影響的外資品牌份額。背後核心基礎還是來源於強於對手的品牌力+渠道力+執行力+活動力。
未來新產品提供增量，預計下半年環比雙位數增長
迴歸今年下半年來看，公司指引提出下半年環比雙位數增長，我們認為這將是大概率事件。飛鶴勢能已起，奶粉行業將加速大魚吃小魚，集中度將加速提高，飛鶴即將進入奶粉一超多強時代。參考國外，未來公司依然存在享受到純國產品牌的政策 紅利，繼過往吃掉渠道紅利+註冊制紅利後的再次紅利，讓我 們拭目以待！盈利預測與估值 預 計 公 司 2020-2022 年實現收入 分 別 為 191.59/258.16/331.07 億元， 分 別 同比增長+39.15%/+34.74%/ +28.24% ，歸母淨利潤 分 別 為56.99/77.20/100.70 億元，同比增速 分 別 為+44.85%/+35.46%/+30.44%，對應 PE 分別為 22/16/13 倍，首 次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示
新生兒人口數量持續下降的風險；食品安全風險；消費者需求轉變風險；行業內競爭激烈帶來的風險；新冠疫情帶來的業績風險等。
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