中國利郎(01234.HK)：維持高派息，加速新零售發展，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
收入下滑淨利率穩定，派息比例超過 7 成
公司實現收入 10.93 億元，-29.0%；歸母淨利潤 2.69 億元，-30.8%。公司現金充沛，保持低槓桿和高派息，派息比例約 75.6%。疫情影響下公司的費用開支保持相對靈活，控費降本保持淨利率穩定；庫存週轉天數相比去年同期上升 54 天，渠道庫存也有所增加，下半年將利用奧萊店、線上促銷等方式清理庫存，預計 2021 年初恢復正常。
渠道優化穩步推進，輕商務系列多數轉為直營
上半年店鋪數量減少 98 家至 2717 家，面積下降 3.9%，購物商場店維持佔比 28%。公司共有一級/二級分銷商 77/768 家，數量相對穩定。應對實體店客流下滑積極發展線上，電商銷售額同比增長 1.5 倍。公司在加強庫存管理和品牌塑造的基礎上，將輕商務 228 家店鋪轉為直營。
新零售發展迅速，助力庫存清理和品牌推廣
公司預計下半年實現不低於中單位數的零售增長，首要目標為保持庫存健康，具體措施包括：1） 維持店鋪數量穩定而優化結構，增加奧萊店和優質商場店。2）線上多渠道引流，下半年將延續強勁勢頭。3）加強品牌推廣，推出不同聯名產品，並在第四季度聘用新的代言人 。
風險提示
1.宏觀經濟與消費需求大幅下行；2.庫存去化不及預期，加大利潤拖累；
3.市場的系統性風險。
投資建議：穩健度過危機，看好長期品牌穩步升級
公司應對短期危機謹慎行事，有助於保持長期健康發展。考慮疫情影響和輕商務轉直營產生的費用，我們下調盈利預測，預計公司 20-22年 淨 利 潤 增 速 分 別 為 -30.4%/41.0%/17.2% ， EPS 分 別 為0.47/0.67/0.78 （ 原 為 0.63/0.76/0.85 元 ）， 對 應 PE 分別為8.5x/6.1x/5.2x，明年股息率高達 11.6%。維持公司合理估值為 6.7-7.1港元，對應 21 年 PE 9x-9.5x，維持“買入”評級。
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