《大行報告》摩通料內銀股第二季純利倒退24%及壞賬升 全線降目標價
摩根大通發表研究報告,指內銀在8月27日起開始公布第二季業績。雖然收入按年穩定增長4%,但預期第二季的純利會按年減少24%,因為銀行確認的壞帳及處置快速增長。該行將內銀股2020至2022年的盈利預測下調,以反映更高的減值準備。
摩通認為,雖然盈利減少,但內銀股股價的下行風險有限。今年來,內銀股H股的股價已累跌約15%,估值不高。在穩健的宏觀經濟復甦情況下,資產質素前景或會改善,首選招商銀行(03968.HK)及平安銀行,因為它們的預撥備利潤及平均資產較高,以及零售入帳恢復,給予招行評級「增持」,目標價為50元。
該行將內銀股2020至2022年的盈利預測分別下調10%、8%及6%,主要是因為減值支出上升所致,而收入預測則大致不變。將內銀股的目標價平均下跌8%,注意到交通銀行(03328.HK)及中國光大銀行(06818.HK)的AH股溢價已在今年初分別擴闊至23%至45%,兩者評級為「增持」及「中性」,目標價分別由5.8元及4.05元,降至5元及3.4元。
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