丘鈦科技(01478.HK)：攝像頭產品結構升級，業績再寫新高，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價 14.1港元
機構：興業證券
評價：審慎增持
目標價：14.1港元
投資要點
攝像模組增長強勁，收入淨利均創歷史新高。公司上半年收入 88 億元（人民幣，下同），同比增長 74%，其中攝像模組收入 77 億元，同比增長 97% （ASP 同比增長 1 倍至 42.8 元），指紋模組收入 10.5 億元，同比下滑 7%，毛利率 8.3%，同比改善 0.1ppts，淨利潤率 3.8%，同比改善 0.2ppts。歸母淨利潤 3.36 億元，同比增長 86%，主要因毛利率微幅改善、補貼等其他收入提升及聯營公司虧損，去除影響後同比增長 60%。
產品結構改善驅動 CCM 單價增長，FPM 市場份額持續提升。CCM：上半年攝像模組出貨 1.8 億顆，同比下滑-1%；ASP 約 42.8 元，同比增長99.8%，主要因 10M 以上營收佔比同比提升 27ppts 至 73.5%；毛利率達8.0%，同比提高 0.4ppts。公司修改攝像模組全年出貨量指引至同比增長- 5%-+5%（原先預計同比+20%以上），但維持 10M+模組佔比≥60%及 32M+模組佔比≥25%的預測；同時預計 CCM 產能到 2020 年末提高到 60KK/ 月，16-20 年 CAGR 為 27%，其中印度基地產能將達到 8KK/月以上。FPM：上半年指紋模組出貨量 4 千萬顆，同比增長 5.8%，其中屏下式佔比同比提升 4.7ppts 至 55.7%；毛利率 9.5%，同比下滑 0.6ppts。
自動化帶來成本持續改善，高端鏡頭仍具成長空間。公司持續推動產線的自動化，1H2020 人工成本/銷售成本 4.3%（-0.4ppts）。公司表示大芯片、超廣角、多倍連續光學變焦等有望持續驅動 ASP 增長，目前高端鏡頭已經逐步下沉到中低端手機，下半年伴隨新機上市或迎來增長。
投資建議：我們預計公司 2020/21/22 年收入為 211/241/272 億元，歸母淨利潤 8.0/9.0/11 億元。由於高端攝像模組有望在下半年換機潮持續滲透，公司的高端產品佔比改善有望持續推動盈利能力提升。考慮今年外部因素干擾較多，我們按公司 21 年盈利預測的 16 倍 PE，上調目標價 15%至 14.1港元，維持“審慎增持”評級。
風險提示：攝像模組競爭加劇，疫情反覆影響供求，國際情勢干擾供應鏈。
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