卓越教育集團(03978.HK)：疫情下積極進取，區域擴張值得期待，維持“買入”評級，目標價4.8港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：4.8港元
投資要點
受疫情影響，公司 2020 年上半年招生人次和營收分別為 26.0 萬人和7.7 億元，同比分別 8.2%和 11.3%：
2020H1 公司實現收入約 7.7 億元人民幣，同比減少 11.3%；毛利 2.7 億元人民幣，同比減少 23.7%；毛利率較 2019H1 的 41.4%下降 5.8 個百分點至 35.6%；實現淨利潤 5.3 億元人民幣，同比減少 29.6%。公司營收和淨利潤的下滑主要受疫情影響所致。2020H1 公司常規班招生人數為 26.0萬人，較去年同期同口徑招生人數 28.4 萬人下降 8.2%。常規班總輔導課時數下降 12.9%，培訓中心數與 19 年末持平，達到 265 家。
疫情下卓越教育逆勢增加銷售費用投放，引進超過 600 名優秀教師，印證其區域拓張決心。公司低價班引流效果佳。
2020H1 公司銷售費用較去年同期約 6,000 萬元增長至接近 9,000 萬元，同比提升 50%。低價班策略成效顯著，2020 上半年短期班科數比去年同期增加 123.6%，深圳地區班輔收入同比增加 14.7%。7 月復課以來，廣州外區域市場招生人次同比增長 52.4%。截至目前，暑期低價班轉化率30%，預計暑期結束後轉化率有望恢復疫情前接近 50%的水平。
維持買入評級，維持目標價 4.8 港元：
我們對公司區域擴張保持樂觀，原因是在區域性課培機構中，卓越教育的教學質量較高（80%以上續讀率、接近 50%轉化率），“大語文”特色顯著，過往在廣州直面雙巨頭競爭也並未展現疲態。並且，公司通過合夥人機制等措施增強激勵，增加銷售費用投放，重點進攻深圳市場。目前公司區域擴張已取得初步成效，期待在深圳形成口碑後加速擴張。
我們下調了公司營利預期，預計 2020/21/22 年營收分別為 17.7/24.5/29.9億元，歸母淨利潤分別為 0.88/1.90/2.60 億元，對應 EPS 0.112/0.242/0.331元。目前公司現價 3.29 港元對應 2021 年 PE 12.2 倍，PB 2.6 倍，估值較低。維持目標價 4.8 港元，對應 2021E 每股收益 17.8 倍，維持買入評級。
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