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华侨银行料本港全年经济收缩6%至7% 中概股回流提振港汇
阿思达克 08-17 15:19
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告指,展望本港下半年,经济可能维持负增长,因为防疫限制措施持续生效,加上对疫情的担忧反覆升温,将难免继续打击本地消费、企业投资情绪,以及服务出口。

不过,由於去年下半年基数较低,且全球经济温和复苏,下半年经济萎缩幅度可能较上半年收窄。总括而言,该行预计今年全年经济将萎缩6%至7%,惟实际情况仍取决於疫情的发展。至於政府则把经济增长预测由收缩4%至7%,进一步下调至收缩6%至8%。

写字楼市场方面,6月甲级写字楼的空置率上升至近十一年新高的7.6%,而写字楼整体价格指数(按年下跌15.6%)和租金指数(按年下跌7.9%)则分别连跌第十一个月及第五个月。由此可见,在企业采取更灵活的工作安排,同时更倾向於选择非核心商业区办公室以节省成本的情况下,写字楼市场(尤其是核心商业区)的下行压力或较大。

至於金融市场,则维持稳健,主因是各大央行实施超宽松货币政策、全球投资情绪高涨,以及美国就香港问题采取的行动短期影响有限。报道称新东方(EDU.US)、爱奇艺(IQ.US)、唯品会(VIPS.US)和百世快递(BEST.US)皆考虑来港二次上市。随着中美冲突升温,若更多在美上市的中概股回流香港,港汇料受到支持,从而带动银行体系总结余上升,并引导港元拆息进一步向下。

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