中国光大绿色环保(01257.HK)：业绩基本符合预期，下半年业务将实现环比改善，维持“买入”评级，目标价5.74港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：5.74港元
公司2020H1业绩符合预期。公司2020H1实现收入42.45亿港元，归母净利润8.22亿元，均基本同比持平，符合市场预期。其中，公司运营服务收入占比从去年同期的45%提升至2020H1的56%，主要受生物质板块综合利用上网电量、生活垃圾处理量和蒸汽供应量的上升带动，而2020H1公司建造服务收益同比下滑22%。?公司积极转向危固废业务。2020年公司仍然有较多生物质新项目的建设，但从过去两年新签项目的情况来看，公司已经积极转向现金流相对较好的危固废业务。
年内公司有望新纳入12个生物质项目于补贴目录中。根据2020年3月财政部“6号文”，公司符合首批补贴清单申报条件的项目达12个，截止2019年末涉及应收的可再生能源补贴资金约为18亿元，预计公司的生物质项目也将在后续批次中予以纳入。对于不同类型的项目，采取了不同比例的发放原则，公司新纳入的项目有望每年开始回收30-40%新产生的补贴。另外，近期国家有关部门也在计划解决可再生能源补贴拖欠的问题，如果有实质进展，有助于公司生物质补贴拖欠问题的解决。
我们的观点：尽管公司受到存量生物质项目补贴拖欠的影响，但随着新项目的纳入目录有望回收部分新产生的补贴额，同时国家有关部门也在积极解决可再生能源补贴拖欠的问题。另外，公司积极转型赛道较优的危固废业务有望在未来获得回报。根据公司最新情况，我们将公司2020-2022年收入微调-2.0%、-0.9%和-1.3%至101.8、129.2和130.0亿港元，将2020-2022年利润微调0.2%、1.2%和0.2%至17.3、20.1和21.4亿港元。我们维持公司的“买入”评级，维持目标价为5.74港元。
风险提示：政府补贴政策变化；生物质电价变化；原材料价格大幅上涨。
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